Miami doesn’t look good on paper, but bad teams can cause problems as well
The Marlins are projected to be one of the worst teams in baseball this year, and that shouldn’t be surprising for any reason. After 100 losses in 2024, the Fish have finished above .500 just twice in the past 15 seasons (once was the pandemic-shortened season).
Last year, the Braves went 9-4 against Miami, not dropping a set to them (one split), giving them a nice breather from their slog of a season. They did the same in 2023, went 13-6 against them in 2022, and fundamentally haven’t struggled against them at all on their current run: from 2018-onward, the Braves’ winning percentage against Miami in each season has been higher than their seasonal winning percentage. In fact, this was also true during the rebuild years; the last time it wasn’t true was 2014, when the Braves went 9-10 against the Marlins, including dropping a key September series to them, as part of their nightmare stretch run.
The Marlins don’t project to be strong anywhere, and though they have Sandy Alcantara and Xavier Edwards, they don’t have much else. Jesus Sanchez is now on the shelf with oblique problems, which is a further blow. But, my question is — is this going to be more of the same with the Braves mostly creaming the Marlins, or is there a spike pit under what looks like a pleasant patch of dirt to step on?