Clemson and FSU leaving doesn’t have to spell doom.
It’s a foregone conclusion that FSU and Clemson want out of the conference. The offseason storylines have been littered with court proceedings from lawsuits and countersuits between the ACC and its two power teams. The overall perception of the league is that without Clemson and FSU there is no value left. That perception is false.
The problem with College Football is perception is built by the networks, has recency bias, and your ability to compete for national championships. Until FSU’s 13-1 season last year, people asked if the Seminoles could even perform in the SEC or Big Ten. Clemson, once a stalwart in the postseason, is now considered underachieving by its standards and suffers for it. Let any other team not named Alabama or UGA in the SEC have 9 wins as their worst season in a decade and you will hear a different tune.
So why would Clemson and FSU bolting off to destinations unknown not be bad for the remaining members? Because in the new era of playoff football, someone has to fill the void. There is a lot of debate about who would gobble up the remaining schools when the conference splits. There isn’t a reason for the conference to fracture. ESPN and FOX have made it clear that the Big Ten and SEC aren’t getting additional revenue for added teams until it’s time to restructure deals (2031 for the Big Ten and 2034 for the SEC). We’ve already seen new members come in at lower paydays into the Big Ten this year. The ACC already receives more than the Big 12 in playoff money and is still guaranteed an auto-bid in the playoffs until the 2026 “look-in” where they can amend the structure.
The ACC wouldn’t lose that auto-bid after 2026 if no one else leaves the conference. UNC, Virginia Tech, and Miami are all strong brands that would now no longer be second fiddle to Clemson and FSU. NC State has been just short of competing and has a strong following as well. These teams would compete for a playoff and the networks would be beside themselves to have a chance at putting Miami back into national relevance. The ACC would still be at a different level than any G5 conference and still has the 2036 contract on top of whatever settlement the ACC gets out of Clemson and FSU.
Georgia Tech, or any other ACC member, stands to benefit if it can capitalize on the right place, right time scenario. Clemson and FSU being gone would ease the conference schedule that has been a thorn in the Yellow Jacket’s side. Clemson, until this year, has been a permanent opponent on Tech’s schedule. Miami was the only other Coastal team that had to deal with FSU and Clemson in the same year. Tech would have been perceived as more competitive through Coach Paul Johnson’s years if Clemson was not a regular opponent and most likely could have a few more Coastal titles. We know what Collins’s era was and it has been a dead weight for recent bias, but Tech is back above the .500 mark and looks to carry that with a strong returning roster for 2024 and a very manageable schedule in 2025.
The year 2025 is where I want to break down what this could look like. It would be the first possible year Clemson and FSU could be out.
fbschedules.com
That is the most favorable Georgia Tech schedule I have seen in the decades of watching. The non-conference schedule should be 3-1 at worst. Now you drop Clemson and add one of the new additions from this year or possible additions that would take Clemson or FSU’s place. Regardless, they won’t be as talented as Clemson. Georgia Tech can win the ACC with that schedule. Winning the ACC means a spot in the Playoffs. Now what Georgia Tech would do from there is anybody’s guess and who they would be paired against. The perception has already changed at that point. Transfer players, after money, want to go where they can compete for something and be seen. Recruits want to go to a successful program. Tech still won’t outweigh UGA or some of the surrounding SEC schools, but they don’t have to do that. They only have to be better than their conference peers.
Few schools ever make the leap from an occasional contender to a blue-blood program. Georgia Tech will probably never get back to the Coach Dodd days. It can do what Utah has done and become a standard 9-win program or like TCU and make occasional deep runs every few years. Other national brands are going to take hits by moving into these stacked conferences. Will Auburn or Florida fall even more with a newcomer like Texas in the mix of the SEC? The weaker Big Ten West no longer exists and those teams will have to see Ohio State and Michigan more often. The new playoff era and an easier path through FSU and Clemson leaving would leave the door open for the possibility.