Prior to the game against FSU, I sat down with Matt Minnick from Tomahawk Nation to get his perspective on the matchup.
FTRS: Halfway through the season, what are your thoughts on where FSU stands? Despite being picked near the bottom of the ACC by the media, they seem to have exceeded expectations so far, rising from 90th to 62nd in Kenpom.
Matt: While FSU is certainly better than what most outsiders predicted (Trilly Donovan laughably predicted FSU to be the worst high major team in the entire country), it’s about where we had them pegged at Tomahawk Nation. Back in our preseason roundtable (which has a lot of good stuff about the team overall), all four writers picked FSU to finish better than 75th on KenPom. I have no idea how anyone could think a Jamir Watkins led team would finish worse than squads like Cal and BC.
What has been a bit of a surprise in Tallahassee is how the low-60s rank has been accomplished. To start the season it was largely being driven by a defense displaying exceptional ability to turn teams over and cause chaos. That was expected. But in conference play, with the exception of the Pitt game earlier this week, the script has been flipped. The offense actually ranks higher in league play in terms of efficiency (8th) than the defense (10th). Maybe it’s small sample size, but intriguing, nonetheless, as we get deeper into January.
FTRS: What are this team’s biggest strengths and weaknesses this season?
Matt: There’s no hiding the ball on this one. FSU has three really clear strengths:
- Blocking shots
- Creating turnovers
- Getting to the free throw line
The Seminoles are top 40 nationally in all three categories. Watkins ranks 1st out of all players in D1 basketball with 8.6 fouls drawn per 40, while Taylor Bol Bowen and Malique Ewin are 3rd and 10th, respectively, in the ACC for block rate.
Unfortunately, doesn’t do a great job of playing complimentary basketball. The ‘Noles rank 296th in the country at sending opponents to the free throw line, which isn’t ideal for a team that is really good at blocking shots.
And while the 3pt defense for the season looks okay, that’s largely a product of playing an OOC schedule that included quite a few teams that are awful shooting the basketball. In league play, Leonard Hamilton’s 5 year refusal to play a defense that doesn’t involve switching 7 footers onto lightning fast point guards has been consistently exploited to generate wide open looks from the perimeter. Hence, FSU ranking 16th in the league in 3pt percent defense, as opponents torch the net at a 40% clip.
FTRS: Which player is the biggest X-factor for this team in this matchup?
Matt: Daquan Davis — The freshman point guard is the best freshman guard in Hamilton’s tenure (unless you count Scottie Barnes as a guard, which I don’t) and he seems to be growing more confident by the game. His tenacity on defense is infectious and his playmaking on offense allows guys like Watkins, Ewin, and Chandler Jackson to take advantage of mismatches. And while he’s not an elite shooter, he is a tough shot maker. The question is, will he start to hit a freshman wall? He played 33 minutes against Pitt and was hobbling toward the end of the game. Him being at less than 90% would be bad news for FSU and great for the Yellow Jackets, especially with fellow freshman AJ Swinton unlikely to play due to injury.
FTRS: What has FSU done well in wins and not done so well in losses?
Matt: FSU is 1-4 in games they turned teams over on less than 19% of their possessions. They are 12-1 when forcing turnovers on 19% or more of possessions. Beating FSU begins and ends with protecting the basketball.
FTRS: As seems to always be the case, FSU is quite tall this season. How do they continue to recruit monsters?
Matt: You, too, can field a really tall and long team if you eschew high level shooting and dribbling skills in exchange for athletes who can run and jump. Seriously, if these guys had elite length and basketball skill, they would likely be at Kansas or UConn. Hamilton achieved success by finding guys with NBA level attributes and then molding them into a cohesive unit over 3-4 years so he could unleash his defensive fury on overwhelmed opponents.
With NIL and the portal ending any semblance of continuity and culture (FSU has 10 first year players this year and our head coach is facing litigation from 6 former players), the strategy outlined above no longer produces quite the same effect.
The ironic thing about your question, though, is that for the first time since before COVID, this year’s squad looks like there was an actual attempt to put together a roster that fits in terms of complimenting and versatile skill sets. Ewin is FSU’s best center in at least 4 seasons and it’s in part because he’s not the typical FSU 7’2 guy (he’s “only” 6’11). And Davis is the smallest guard FSU has started in many moons, but his high hoops IQ and lateral quickness allows him to be a menace on defense all the same. If only there was some semblance of a plan for who will be head coach next season and the big donors cared about basketball, then you might actually see FSU be pretty darn good next season.
FTRS: What’s your prediction for the game?
All 5 FSU losses are by double digits, while 10 of FSU’s 12 wins are by double-digits. So I don’t expect the game to come down to the final possession. GT is shooting an okay 34% from deep in ACC play, but I expect y’all to hit double-digit threes for the first time since December in this one. Maybe something like 11-26 from downtown.
Unfortunately, coming in at 15th in the league in turnovers does not bode well. Pitt had more turnovers in the first half of Wednesday’s game than they had in any other full game this season. The trends continue and FSU gets a home win.
FSU 81, GT 70