How would you grade Key as a head coach this year?
Namrebeil: What is the most important thing in a bowl opponent (ie high profile, beatability, etc) and what team would fit that among plausible ones?
Ben: Honestly, I couldn’t care less who Tech plays or where they play. No matter what those two things are, Georgia Tech will be getting 15 extra practices, which is terrific! So since opponent and location don’t impact that, I don’t really care who or where they play. What is important for me is that it is an enjoyable experience for the players and coaches. Ultimately, it’s an exhibition, so as long as the players and coaches have a good time, I’m good with that.
Chris: At this stage I’d probably lean towards “beatability” on that spectrum. I think we’ve had a tough season with a lot of injuries and close games, it’d be nice to close the season out with a comfortable win that gets us some money and eyeballs. As we progress in national notoriety though I think that shifts to favoring higher profile matchups that have higher rewards but more risk. For now though, take the low risk and end the season on a high note.
Logan: I think the most important thing is that you win to end the season on a good note. I guess from that standpoint “beatability” is the best thing. It’s good to play a P5 team or a team you haven’t played before to get more people watching, but I just want to win.
Anuj Bhyravabhotla: I think this might be the first season in a while that I can say we found ourselves in a winning position in every game. Last year, against uga, we were simply “biting, scratching, clawing, and making the opponent bleed”, where we did what we did and you could say we were content just hanging with them. This year, well….we all know what happened. I still believe that racing out to that lead was a major positive step in Brent Key’s journey of learning not to lose, then learning to win, and then learning to win consistently. I strongly believe the first step to learning to win consistently has to be getting into winning positions against anyone, and we’re doing that. Which brings me to my real question….
How do we push ourselves over the edge to where we’re more consistently closing out those winning positions? Is it depth? Is it conditioning? Is it raw talent? How much of that will come with recruiting momentum and how much is dependent on player development?
Ben: I think it’s both depth and talent. Georgia Tech doesn’t have the same kind of speed on defense that teams like UGA has. But a lot of it also comes from depth, which is currently a work in progress. I think it’s something that Tech will continue to improve as recruiting improves.
Chris: Yup, we held a lead in all but one game this year (Syracuse). I think depth is a huge factor – you can’t rely on massive individual efforts alone all the time, you need to be able to depend on a high floor of production from everyone on the field. For example, Philo singlehandedly won us the NC State game, but he doesn’t have to be the hero if a more rested and consistent defense makes a couple more stops in the fourth quarter. It might seem small, but one or two third down attempts going the other way can turn out huge for the end result. Same thing on the offensive side – if a highly produce OL or RB or WR has to come out, we need to maintain productivity and convert a couple more of our own third downs.
Logan: Ben and Chris summed up the big ones pretty nicely. You need to have talent to compete, especially at the important positions. King is mostly the one carrying the games although we usually see one or two other athletes shine through in each game. We need to have some other athletes we can step up and put on game changing performances, especially on defense. Depth is big, you have to be able to have other players who can step in if every starter at a position gets injured. There are other minor factors but those are the big ones.
Jack: If you take just that Georgia game, it’s having refs worth a damn who don’t impede the progress of the underdog so they don’t get boo’d.
Dinowizerd: Is there anything that can be done about strength and conditioning to help reduce injuries next year?
Ben: I don’t know enough about S&C to really give a good answer here, but I sure hope so!
Chris: I too don’t know anything, but I swear for the past few years we’ve got guys hurt (mostly on defense) what feels like every 3-4 plays. I don’t think we’re faking them (at least most of them), but I’m not sure if it’s a S&C thing, a technique thing, or what.
Logan: I also don’t know much about S&C… maybe try stretching more? I have no idea, but it is something we need to improve on.
Jack: I’m going with no, not at all. Football is going to have a lot of injuries, part of the game is getting through them with your depth.
Bill Brockman: Our men’s basketball team isn’t very good, is it?
Ben: Doesn’t seem like it!
Chris: We still play basketball?
Logan: Anything can happen. I believe NC State had a stretch last year where they won 2 out of 14 games (don’t have the stats in front of me, but I believe I heard that on sports talk radio in the triangle) before going on their Final 4 run. But the direct answer to your question is no, we do not look good.
Jack: Our women’s team on the other hand….VERY GOOD!
TkTheGoat: okay lets get into record predictions for next year. I have us going 9-3 if we can retain King, I guess my real question is, are we a possible playoff contender yet??
Ben: I think it’s too early to give a record prediction. There’s a lot that’s going to change before next Fall. To answer your question, though, yes, I think Georgia Tech has the potential to compete for the ACC Championship, and thus, the College Football Playoff.
Chris: If everyone stays healthy all year and we don’t lose any big names to the portal then I think we’re looking at an 8-10 win season. Throw out UGA and Clemson momentarily; absolutely no one else on the schedule should be worse than a 50/50 shot. Like Ben said, we should be competing for an ACC Championship and we should aim to be ranked for most of the season.
Logan: It’s way too early to know how teams will look next year, but I’ll give it a shot. Based on what we’ve seen this year our toughest games will be (in no particular order) Colorado, Clemson, uga, Boston College, Duke and Syracuse. Let’s say we lose all those games; in that case we would have a 6-6 record, I doubt that happens, but we’ve seen what can happen with injuries so that’s worst possible case. I expect us to win between 2 to 3 of the 6 tough games, with at least 1 big upset. My expectation for O/U from Vegas would be 7.5, and I think we can get 8 with a possibility of more depending on how good the defense looks.
jabsterjacket: When is the last time we had a recruiting class ranked #17 or higher?
Ben: In 2007, 247 Sports ranked Georgia Tech’s class at 15th overall. Rivals had that class at 18. On3 has some sort of retroactive ranking that puts the class at 12th overall.
Dinowizerd: Any thoughts you’d like to share on Lane Kiffin’s takes about how the SEC is in a different league than all the other conferences?
Ben: Lane likes to hear himself talk. I think that’s all there really is to it.
Chris: Lane has some bad takes. Is it the best league top to bottom? Yeah probably, but trying to say “it’s just so tough, 9-3 means more than 10-2 in any other league” is meaningless. Ole Miss lost to a Kentucky team that just got boat raced by Louisville. College football is a low-sample-size sport; you can’t extrapolate anything, all you can do is play the games, and Ole Miss lost too many.
Logan: Lane is going to bat for his team and his conference. The ACC Commish did the same for Miami. I don’t like hearing SEC teams whine about how bad they have it, but I understand Lane trying to be like “Hey we deserved a spot”, because lobbying is part of the sport. Always has been part of CFB, not that it makes it better.
Skiles85: Does Haynes King have the arm talent / enough accuracy to make it as an NFL QB? I’ve seen speculation that he might help a team more as a Taysom Hill TE/RB/QB hybrid.
Ben: I don’t think he’d be an early enough draft pick to get a legitimate shot at QB in the NFL. I could see him taking on some kind of Taysom Hill-type role, but it’d really have to be the right situation.
Chris: I don’t think he’s NFL ready right now. He’s an extremely dynamic player, but I think that’s largely a skill-set that works well in college and doesn’t translate super well to the pros. I definitely could see him in some sort of gadget/hybrid role, but I’d be very surprised if at this point any NFL team would be willing to draft him as purely a QB. We’ll see how he looks in 2025 when he’s hopefully 100% healthy, but I think it would take a monster season for him to get real NFL looks.
Logan: This year? I don’t think scouts saw enough to consider him as a full time QB. The injury issue would keep him from being a utility QB as a backup.
Next year? Maybe. He has the raw talent to be a starting QB, but the injury concern will be a topic of discussion, as well as all the turnovers in 2023. If he balls out next year though, who knows what happens.
jellopacket98: Brent Key’s record against “ranked” opponents is brought up every time we play a “ranked” opponent, and while it is true that his record against “ranked” opponents at the time they played is decent, FSU taught us that rankings when you play don’t mean squat. Unfortunately, the real data shows Key’s record against opponents that were ranked in the Final Top 25 at the end of the season is actually not that impressive.
Result ; Ranking at Game Time; Team; Final Ranking
2022
W (24) Pitt (22)
W (13) UNC (-)
L (-) FSU (11)
L (1) UGA (1)
2023
L (-) Louisville (19)
L (17) Miss (9)
W (17) Miami (-)
L (-) Clemson (20)
W (17) UNC (-)
L (1) UGA (4)
2024 as of 125
W (10) FSU (-)
L (-) Syracuse (23)
L (19) Louisville (-)
L (12) ND (4)
W (4) Miami (14)
L (7) UGA L (5)
Record against opponents Ranked at game time: 6-6
Record against opponents Ranked in final poll: 2-8
I know everyone is high on the trajectory of the program under Key, but when judging the actual data, do you feel like there might be some cause for concern that we haven’t really been doing that well against the Top 25? Or are the “closer” losses reason for optimism?
Ben: I think Georgia Tech is definitely improving, but this was a bit eye-opening. I am still optimistic as to how Tech is moving against higher ranked teams.
Chris: While ranking at game time isn’t great, end of season ranking can suffer similar problems (e.g. huge midseason injuries, a team really puts it together in the back half, etc.). Take 2023 FSU for example – what would’ve happened if Jordan Travis got hurt in game 6 and after losing 5 of their last 6 they finished unranked? Beating them in week 4 would be a top 5 win at the time, but from the end-of-season perspective it’s an unranked win even though you played and beat the Travis version of the team. There are often material changes to team productivity as the season progresses, and end of season rankings don’t weigh the whole season evenly. Also, depending on how you want to count 2023 FSU only dropping to 11 because of the late Jordan Travis injury, 5 or 6 of those losses are to Top 10 teams and 4 or 5 of them are to Top 5 teams. I’m not concerned at all about losing those.
Logan: All of college football is subjective. It’s part of what makes the sport fun and exasperating at the same time. I would agree that some of those teams did not end up being what we thought they were (FSU is probably the best example). I should also note that many things happen throughout the football season, and I don’t have a precise analysis on why those teams ended the season where they did.
UNC ended the season unranked in 2022, but they were still the ACC runner up, should I feel worse about us beating them on the road because they didn’t have the ranking at the end of the year?
Last year Miami ended the season unranked because they lost 3 in a row to FSU, Louisville, and NC State and then lost to Rutgers in a bowl game where most of their guys didn’t play. I don’t think that means they were a bad team that didn’t deserve to be ranked at the time, they just got torn apart by better teams at the end of the season. UNC had a similar story in 2023 where they lost to us and then the wheels came off against when they had to play ranked opponents one after another.
You can criticize the wins, but at the end of the day I still think we beat good teams (again, ignoring FSU) who would still likely be ranked above us at the end of the season if we ranked above the top 25. I would still say those were big upsets for GT despite where those opponents ended up as the season went on. I would not feel less excited about those wins just because of where those teams ended up at the end of the year. As far as losses go… I don’t think it really changes much as far as my attitude.
So that was way too much information to basically say I still think the upsets are exciting and it does not detract from the team’s and coaching staff’s achievements when the teams they beat aren’t ranked at the end of the year.
gtbadcarma: How would you grade Key as a head coach this year? I had him C+ last year and still have him C+ this year as game management (such as prepared to play every game; running out of the shotgun on 4th and less than a yard way too many times)/time management are still issues.
Ben: I will give Key a B- for this season. Key struggled with some game management things throughout the season once again, but national expectations were pretty low, and Key far far far surpassed them. There were certainly things that could have been better, but overall, I think Key had a solid season, and I think he will continue to improve.
Chris: I think I agree with B-. Game management was pretty bad in several games, but I’ll definitely give him a lot of credit for managing to win games that I think previous iterations of this team would’ve lost. 7-5 is a very respectable record in year 2 of a rebuild.
Logan: Are we only ranking the on the field coaching / game management? There’s a lot more to being a HC than what happens during the game time. I suppose I would give him a B- for on the field coaching due to his clock management issues and play calling issues on 3rd and 4th short yardage situations; that said I can’t really say how much Key plays a factor in play calling compared to Faulkner and Santucci so that’s a gray area.
Looking at other aspects of the job, Key has been an A+ recruiter. Even if you ignore the class that just came in, last year Key brought in Aaron Philo (among other players) and Philo was one of the big reasons we won the games against Miami and NC State. You could argue that just getting Philo on the team was the difference between a 5-7 season and a 7-5 season.
Player development has also been big. On non-broken plays (plays where we had to recover fumbles in the backfield) I believe we only gave up 2 sacks this year and those were on plays where King was about to scramble because no one was open (someone fact check me on that). With the same core team in 2023 we gave up 5, in 2022 we gave up 39. That’s the most obvious sign of improvement I can think of, but it’s fair to say the talent on the team has been developing well in most positions. I’d give Key a B there, maybe a B+.
Key has done a great job picking his staff. We saw a significant improvement on defense this year under Santucci and everyone still raves about Faulkner. The other thing he does is keep those coaches around, because people like playing and coaching with him. Probably another B+.
Fan interaction has been a high point, as well as media interaction. The team has gotten a lot of exposure lately and pretty much all of it has been in a good light. J Batt is a big factor as well, but Key is the face of it all. I would give that an A.
I understand that on the field performance is one of the bigger factors to being a head coach, but if you factor in everything else Key has done for the program, I have a hard time giving him a grade lower than a B+. I’m probably a little biased, but I don’t think that’s unreasonable.