In which we, like everyone else in the nation, discuss the playoffs
I have now watched back to back winning seasons for the first time in a decade. What a world we live in.
Game Recap in Three Sentences
Tech did everything they could to lose, giving up 22 fourth quarter points that included a go-ahead TD for the Wolfpack with just 90 seconds remaining as well as allowing a potential game-winning FG attempt.
Outside of some fourth quarter lapses, the defense had another solid outing earning three INTs, holding NC State to under 50% on third downs, and holding our third straight opponent under 30 points.
Aaron Philo played the hero when he led a 7-play 75-yard game-winning TD drive that left just 22 seconds on the clock.
Above The Line of the Week
- Aaron Philo, take a bow. He literally did everything on the final drive: 4-4 for 33 yards, and four rushes for 42 yards (including the score). He showed incredible poise as a TRUE FRESHMAN: he took checkdowns when nothing was open, was always aware of the clock, ran with intent, didn’t panic, and marched the team down the field like prime Brady. How could you not be giddy for our future watching that?
- Opportunistic defense. The fourth quarter was some of the worst stuff I’ve seen in a while, but the three interceptions they came up with were huge.
- Bailey Stockton. I love the chemistry he has with Philo (they were high school teammates after all), and I’m excited to hopefully see them work together for the next few years. He looks poised to become a great go-to guy in the mold of Malik Rutherford that can consistently find a way to get open and bail the team out.
Unformed Thought of the Week
I just want to win a comfortable game y’all. I’m tired of having an elevated heart rate in every second half, and I don’t know how I’m expected to fall asleep after having an evening like Thursday. I suppose it’s all part of the “lose big, lose small, win small (you are here), win big” blueprint, but hopefully next year we can give my heart a rest with some boring wins.
5 Star (7 Star, 5 Star) Developmental Program Haiku of the Week
Fear ye who enter
Behold the young gunslinger
Bobby Dodd locked down
Scared to Play
You know what kind of content hasn’t been nauseatingly overdone? Playoff discourse!
I’ve been seeing a lot recently about how a certain football program’s fanbase is very upset to be playing in their conference championship game because a loss there would potentially take them out of playoff contention, whereas not playing at all would almost guarantee them a spot. Why does our playoff system reward teams for being scared of competition? Should a team that’s afraid to rematch an opponent they already beat really be considered worthy of a national championship? Combine this with the fact that the Big 12 champion might only barely get in and I’m forced to conclude that the playoff is poorly designed. It might be marginally better than the 4-team system, but it leaves plenty to be desired.
Conference championships mean a lot culturally in college football; winning your conference is a huge point of pride for a program and it’s a widely used marker of historic success. Contrast that with professional sports in America though – fans don’t really care about division championships at all beyond “it means we probably beat our rivals”. NFL teams even openly mock one another for celebrating division championships explicitly. Given that major cultural difference, it feels a bit backwards that the professional sports leagues make objective division championships the paved path to the postseason while college football continues to put its faith in a subjective committee that treats conference championships as just one small piece of a team’s resume and places more emphasis on “are you in the SEC or Big 10”.
There’s nothing subjective about the NFL playoffs (or the NBA playoffs, or the MLB playoffs,or the NHL playoffs, or any others) – teams make the postseason on the strength of their record alone. Division champions are guaranteed a spot, and wildcards are given out purely based on records (with objective tiebreakers). The NBA and MLS do things a bit differently because they don’t have divisions and operate on a two-conference system, but the core is the same – teams make the postseason by the merit of their record. It is not complicated at all to design such a system for college football:
- Twelve total teams.
- Eight teams from P4 conferences – the conference champions and the runners-up. Conferences are free to decide these two teams however they want, but each conference only gets to send those two teams.
- Four teams from G5 conferences and independents – the 4 highest ranked conference champions or independents. Side note: just join a conference Notre Dame, stop being annoying.
- The P4 champions get first-round byes, and the bracket plays out like it does today.
- Seeding order and tiebreakers are based on head to head, common opponent results, winning % of opponents, etc. You could even rotate seeds/matchups based on conferences (e.g. one year the SEC #1 plays a G5 champion, the next year they play the ACC #2, etc.) to add some randomness.
No more coaches whining about how hard their conference is, no more conference champions being left out because Vegas odds say they wouldn’t be favored against Bama, no more committee making decisions based on TV ratings, no more teams being left out because the committee doesn’t like their backup QB enough, no more power imbalance between conferences jockeying for more playoff spots, no more ducking strong opponents in conference championship games because you’re scared of losing. All that matters is winning games; a purely record-based system puts every team in charge of their own destiny. Upset that you had a good 10-2 season but didn’t make it? Win more games next time. Upset that you think your 9-3 is actually better than another conference champion’s 11-1? Win more games next time. Upset that you actually beat your conference’s eventual champion but still finished third because you also lost two other games to middling teams? Win more games next time. Every single complaint a team could come up with is solved by the point of competition: win more games next time. “If you win your conference, you will play in the playoffs” feels like such a no-brainer.
An objective system such as this can also help clean up several other annoying things:
- Teams are scheduling cupcake non-conference games in order to boost their record? There’s no longer a huge incentive to do so, what matters most is your conference record.
- Teams are running up the score to impress the committee? There’s no need to impress anyone by beating Purdue by 50 instead of 40: a win is a win.
- Power-hungry super-conferences are gobbling up teams? There’s one less incentive to do so – one conference can only have a maximum number of spots, and teams will think twice about joining a crowded field.
Of course, this’ll never happen – everything is run by TV/ESPN and they have a financial interest in the committee-based approach that lets them pump ratings and drum up endless debate and engagement. The currently-in-power conferences (namely the Big 10 and SEC) would also never agree to a cap on the number of teams they can get into the field; Greg Sankey would shamelessly stump for five SEC teams making this year’s playoffs if he could. The motivation will always be getting paid a ton of money to do the bare minimum. Oh well.
Look Ahead
Everyone knows what’s up next. Let’s get after it and ruin their tenuous grasp on a playoff spot (who am I kidding, we could win by 40 and they’d still get in because nothing bad ever happens to them).