Tech is coming in cocky, pruning shears in hand. UGA is coming off a bad rushing defensive game, 2 less days to prepare, and likely looking ahead to the SEC Championship Game. And a Friday game in Sanford, which is borderline sacrilege. What, me worry?
Happy Thanksgiving to all. I hope you are able to spend time with those you care about, and create memories and carry on traditions. Yet like a good turkey brine or cornbread stuffing, in order to be good you must prepare. With a scant 30+ hours before Clean Old-Fashioned Hate commences, I’ve tried to lay down a good base.
We will start with what I’m NOT worried about when Georgia faces the nerds of North Avenue:
1. Arian Smith is redeeming himself. So is Dom Lovett to a degree. After some inexplicable drops and inability to haul in the big catch, #11 has seemingly turned the corner. Smith has taken the brunt of the criticism and rightly so. There have been some tragic drops – things that could have turned the tide of the game or set a different tone early.
His 2nd half performance against Alabama harkened to what he is capable of. Unfortunately that did not last. But he has steadily reduced the drops and also made some contested catches, and now has almost 700 yards receiving on the season, eclipsing 100 yards 3 times in 11 games.
2. There is no undefeated regular season to play for, no undefeated in SEC record to stack onto, but Georgia can still accomplish possibly the most important goal of all: Another season with wins over Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech.
The last 4 years have spoiled us, but in more seasons than I can count, a wonderful year has been spoiled by a loss to one of these 4 traditional rivals. And many times, the result was totally out of the blue and contrary to the game on paper. This might be the biggest difference between the Smart and Richt eras – Kirby is making sure to take care of these games first.
3. Friday Night Lights. I understand this is the first non-Saturday football game in Sanford Stadium since 1994. Of course it would be Georgia Tech to ruin the form and tradition of a Saturday in Athens.
Fear not, for Sir Kirby is 49-4 in Sanford Stadium, and 13-0 in night games in this hallowed place. That bodes well for coming out 1-0 on Fridays on Dooley Field.
Now forgive me, as I was weaned at the nipple of Larry Munson’s scratch so here’s what does worry me about the engineers likely responsible for your vehicle’s minor yet inconvenient and frequent dealer recalls:
1. 226 yards rushing, 5.65 yards per attempt, and 2 scores. That’s a solid game on the ground by any measure. Regrettably, it was the box score for a 2-9 UMass team that had just fired their coach, on the road, facing between 88-90,000 opposing fans against a top SEC team. That might give you some worry.
Georgia Tech is pretty much a run-first team. They average 37 attempts a game and have 3 contests with 48 or more runs. And just because they don’t put up huge yardage totals doesn’t mean it isn’t effective. 5 Yellow Jackets have 25 or more carries on the season and only 1 of them isn’t averaging 4.7 ypc. QB Haynes King, who has missed 2 games and splits time with frosh Aaron Philo, is their 2nd leading rusher. You know the Haynes King or QB power is coming, but it is still hard to stop.
The Bulldog defense has allowed an increase in yards, yards per attempt, and rushing touchdowns the last 4 weeks. The 125 yards rushing allowed season average is the highest since 2018 and over 60% higher than the halcyon days of 2021 and 2022.
2. While the Rambling Wreck defense doesn’t seem too formidable stat-wise, they are likewise very effective. They’ve allowed 30+ points only 4 times with a max of 34 (in a win on the road at UNC). They held Cam Ward to 23 points. They don’t get many turnovers or sacks but they don’t allow teams to score. They get opponents into unfavorable 3rd down yardages and then prevent first downs. They tip a lot of balls. They are tenacious and play good contain. They are used to playing, and winning, close games.
The Georgia offense is firmly middle of the pack in moving the chains on third down, while Georgia Tech is 11th in the nation defending it. I expect typical 2024 running production from the Bulldogs, as these numbers are on average almost exactly what Tech allows on the ground. The running back room is getting healthy in Athens, but I doubt it is available and up to full power come tomorrow night. So it comes down to Carson Beck.
3. Are we still leading the nation in dropped passes? Shame on the SEC Network for not leaving the graphic up on the ticker during the entire broadcast last week. No matter, because the Georgia pass catchers are finally acting like they’re on the same page as the gunslinger Carson Beck.
Beck has thrown for over 300 yards in 3 of the last 4 games and 5 of the last 7. His 8 touchdowns against 4 interceptions (and no INTs the last 2) are starting to flip those horrid stat lines, and much more indicative of his talent and time in Athens.
Coach Mike Bobo has been very creative and smart the last few weeks, putting in wrinkles to give receivers favorable routes and giving Carson favorable windows. Minimize the incredulous drops, make a huge possession catch like Humphreys, throw in a over-the-shoulder grab like Lovett, and you’ve got the makings of a Georgia offense we can be proud of… one we’re used to seeing and honestly expect.
Call me crazy, just don’t call me late for dinner. Sound off in the comments below what worries you about the Bulldogs of Georgia versus the Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech. And as always…
GO ‘DAWGS!!!