After eight years at the helm of the Georgia Bulldogs and another dozen as an assistant in the SEC, Kirby Smart has earned the right to opine on league matters. Before our very eyes, he has moved from being a Young, hotshot assistant to being one of the leagues elder statesmen.
And perhaps I’m viewing this through red and black tinted glasses, but I’ve always enjoyed his thoughtful, measured opinions on conference issues. Whether it be the recruiting calendar, realignment issues, or scheduling, Smart is pretty careful not to get too far out over his skis. He doesn’t pop off at the mouth for no reason. But when he does tell you how he feels about an issue, it’s usually pretty clear that his mind’s been running for a long time before he puts his mouth in gear.
Such has been the case during this year of change in college football. Smart was asked earlier this summer at the SEC Meetings about whether the league should continue to play an eight game conference slate or move to nine SEC games. Ever the diplomat, Smart remarked that he’s in favor of whatever approach gets the most SEC teams into the newly-expanded college football playoff.
Admittedly that’s a bit of an anodyne response. It’s akin to saying you’re looking to buy the car that provides the most features for the money, or you’re planning to invest in “whatever brings the best return.” But my sense is that the Top ‘Dawg means that we’re likely going to see over time (probably in 2024 and 2025) whether aggressive scheduling is worth the effort and risk. If it is, the league will probably go to nine conference games and lose a directional school matchup. Nothing too 4-D chess about that position.
But what also piqued my interest was something else he said in response to the scheduling issue:
“I coached in the NFL for a year and I watched the NFL every year. At the end of the year, a 9-7 year is playoff-worthy. I’m not saying that is where we are headed where 9-7 teams are in the playoff, but we’re headed in a direction where you don’t have to worry about losing your entire roster when you lose one game or two games because they think it’s over.”
I don’t know that fans think often enough about how many October/November college football games are affected by one team knowing that their year is not going to end in the postseason, or at least not the postseason they were hoping for. Going forward, the game between 6-3 Mississippi State and 8-2 Tennessee is going to be way more impactful for both teams than in the past. Under the right circumstances that game is no longer about impressing the Music City Bowl committee. It’s about remaining alive for a #10 to #12 seed in the playoff.
For teams at the top of the heap (Georgia, for example) that means teams that previously had an incentive to try to pull the upset now know that means not just prime billing on SportsCenter. It could mean the tie-breaker for a playoff spot. I’d expect to see fewer players sitting out to protect draft stock on those teams in the Power 5’s squishy midsection from #12 to #30. And likely some gamesmanship around impressing the voters with more style points. After all, there’s a difference resume-wise between a 34-10 loss to a top five team and a 31-24 loss. The folks who select and seed teams are going to have to determine how big that difference is.
If that gives us as fans a couple of more interesting games in a chilly November night, I’m all for it. Until later…
Go ‘Dawgs!!!