Georgia faces arguably its toughest challenge of the season when hosting Ole Miss this Saturday.
The Bulldogs remained undefeated following a 30-21 win over Missouri. They’ll look to maintain College Football Playoff positioning when facing the 8-1 Rebels.
ESPN’s SP+ forecasts another Georgia win. Per Bill Connelly, the model projects a 34-21 Bulldogs victory at Sanford Stadium.
WEEK 11 SP+ PICKS
Mich 27, PSU 21 (21!)
FSU 33, Miami 20
Washington 34, Utah 23
Tenn 29, #Mizzou 26
UGA 34, Ole Miss 21
LSU 37, Florida 25
Oregon 41, USC 2853% of lines within 2 points of SP+, 66% within 3 points, lol. That’s unfair.https://t.co/fjsWyQPXfP pic.twitter.com/R3YB3lY3gW
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 5, 2023
SP+ isn’t too far off from Vegas. Georgia is a 10.5-point favorite with an over-under line of 58.5 points. The spread opened at 11.5.
Connoly’s model gives the Bulldogs a 77 percent win probability. It’s a bit more confident than ESPN Analytics, which assigns the back-to-back national champions a 69.7 percent chance of beating the Rebels.
Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin doesn’t seem to mind everyone favoring Georgia.
“Georgia is the No. 1 team in the country [in the AP poll]. They haven’t lost at home in four years. We’re little ol’ Ole Miss. We’re double-digit underdogs going there at night,” Kiffin told ESPN’s Chris Low. “I mean, what is there to lose? If everyone expects you to lose and all the analytics and stats say you’re supposed to lose, then there’s nothing to lose.”
Ranked seventh in scoring offense and defense, Georgia continues to handle its business. Yet Saturday will be the first time Kirby Smart’s team faces a top-10 opponent this season.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss can shake up the SEC West with an upset and maintain a shot of playing Georgia again for the SEC title next month. Kiffin’s squad has notched five straight wins — four by seven points or fewer — since losing at Alabama in September.
Saturday’s huge conference showdown starts at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.