The Armani Bear Lumbers Into The Sunset
Nick Saban was the greatest coach in college football history. That pains me to admit, because I’ve spent much of my adult Bulldog fandom tormented by his ability to engineer football teams just a little bit better than some very good UGA teams. Saban was the oatmeal cream pie eating hobgoblin who haunted the SEC’s nightmares for almost two decades. He’ll cast a shadow over the league, and certainly Tuscaloosa, much longer than his diminutive frame would suggest.
The Points Are The Point
Enter new head coach Kalen DeBoer, who will bring an uber-productive offensive system to Alabama that helped Washington average 37.7 points per game over the past two seasons. DeBoer will not be bringing his longtime offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who stayed in the Pacific Northwest to serve as OC of the Seattle Seahawks. He’ll be replaced by Nick Sheridan, who coached tight ends at Washington and previously served as offensive coordinator at Indiana.
Sheridan’s biggest challenge will be tweaking the attack that made Michael Penix a Heisman contender in 2023 so that it fits the strengths of Crimson Tide incumbent Jalen Milroe. Milroe struggled in the Tide’s early 2023 loss to Texas, but reassumed the starter’s role in game four and never relinquished it. He ended the season with an impressive 65.8% completion percentage and 23 touchdown passes, throwing only a single interception over Alabama’s final six games.
He also brought a dangerous element to the offense with his legs, running for 531 yards and 12 touchdowns. The 6’2, 225 Milroe is a completely different player than Penix, a guy who can throw the deep ball and also run like a bruising tailback. His versatility opens up some serious possibilities for the new-look offense, and securing his return was the biggest recruiting coup of DeBoer’s young tenure.
Joining Milroe in the backfield will be sophomore Justice Haynes. Saban won a pitched battle for the son of former UGA great Verron Haynes in 2023, then DeBoer re-recruited him away from Georgia and Ohio State among others in 2024. Bama lost a ton of veteran production in the former of seniors Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams (the two leading rushers last year) but Haynes is a true bell cow tailback who could have an All-American season if he stays healthy.
That’s the good news for the Gump offense. Now the less good news (when you have a stable full of Saban recruits there’s rarely “bad” personnel news). There may be some questions at wide receiver. Alabama lost its top three receivers from 2023, Jermaine Burton (NFL), Isaiah Bond (Texas), and Amari Niblack (ditto). Malik Benson would have been a likely starter, but transferred to FSU.
Jalen Hale had a promising freshman campaign but will likely miss most or all of 2024 after suffering a serious knee injury this spring. Five star freshman Ryan Williams is a legit superstar in the making, and could play a big early role. Washington transfer Germie Bernard had 34 receptions for 419 yards for DeBoer in 2023, and the new top Tider will need him to replicate that production in 2024.
The offensive line also took some serious hits since last we saw them. Starting 2023 tackle JC Latham is now in the NFL, and his fellow bookend Kadyn Proctor transferred to Iowa. Starting center Seth McLaughlin decamped for Ohio State, and key reserve Terence Ferguson moved on the Florida State. DeBoer did bring standout center Parker Brailsford with him from Washington, and veteran backups Tyler Booker and Elijah Pritchett could both easily slot into the lineup. But another thing to watch out for is how the Tide’s battle ship sized (every 2023 starter save McLaughlin tipped the scales over 340 pounds) linemen hold up in DeBoer’s fast-paced attack.
Defense: The New Same Old Thing
Nick Saban redefined college football defense during his tenure in Tuscaloosa. With able assistance from Kirby Smart he popularized the NFL-style 3-4, pioneered hybrid edge rushers, and wrote the blueprint for defending modern spread offenses. Not a hard act to follow, right?
DeBoer’s an offensive guy, and will turn the defense over to Kane Wommack, who stepped down as South Alabama’s head coach to rejoin DeBoer (with whom he had previously worked at Indiana). Wommack’s base set at South Alabama was a hybrid 4-2-5 attack that was designed to bring pressure from all over the place. While Saban made his name as a defensive genius using a 3-4 alignment, his defense in recent seasons (like many in college football) had shifted to a 4-2-5 on a majority of downs. While there may be some terminology differences, I expect the transition on defense to be far more seamless than that faced by the Tide offense.
It also helps that the cupboard isn’t exactly bare on offense. Alabama returns key pieces in defensive tackle Tim Keenan, linebackers Jihaad Campbell and Deontae Lawson and safety Malachi Moore. Lawson in particular may be a critical returner. The redshirt junior tallied 67 tackles and 3 sacks in only 11 games in 2023. He’ll likely quarterback the defense for Wommack from his inside linebacker spot.
Up front, in additionto Keenan keep an eye on Texas A&M transfer LT Overton. Overton has bulked up to 280 pounds to play the “bandit” spot in Wommack’s defense. Not to get too in the weeds, but it’s a sort of hybrid tackle/end spot that can line up anywhere from a wide 9 technique to the inside eye of the guard depending on the situation. It’s a role I think Overton is made for, and he’ll be a physical mismatch for a lot of offensive linemen if his new bulk comes with his old agility.
But it’a not all sunshine and roses for the Tide defense. Gone are elite pass rushers Dallas Turner, Chris Braswell, and Justin Eboigbe, all three of whom are now in the NFL. They finished 1-2-3 in sacks for the Tide in ‘23, and accounted for 25 of Bama’s 39 total sacks on the season (a full 64%).
Wommack will also be replacing a lot of production on the back end, with 2023 corners Terrion Arnold and Jaylen Key both in the NFL, and breakout safety Caleb Downs transferred to Ohio State. Throw in safety Kristian Story, who transferred to Kentucky, and the Tide return exactly 2 of the 12 interceptions they snagged in 2023. Growing up and meshing together in the secondary may be the most important task for this unit.
The True End Of An Era
I admit it. Sometimes I treat the special teams portion of these opponent previews as a bit of an afterthought. But this one may genuinely matter. That’s because for the first time in five seasons Alabama will now begin a season with a kicker other than Will Reichard. Reichard left Tuscaloosa as college football’s all-time leading scorer and the 2023 SEC special teams player of the year. He also kicked Alabama out of more than his share of jams. He’ll be replaced by Graham Nicholson, a transfer from Miami (Ohio) who hit 27 of 28 field goals in 2023, all of them in stadiums much smaller than Bryant-Denny. Consider this your daily dose of foreshadowing.
Punter James Burnip and long snapper Kneeland Hibbett however are both back and should provide steady service. Burnip is both the holder on kicks and the largest punter I have ever seen at 6’6 and 240 pounds. He earned second team All-SEC honors in 2023, averaging 47.8 yards per kick. But again, he’s mostly notable for being the size of 1.7 Nick Sabans.
The Bottom Line
Is DeBoer a pretty good football coach who happened to catch lightning in a bottle for one season at Washington? Or is he a legitimate championship coach? The 2024 season won’t definitively answer that question. There’s the push of a roster still stocked with Saban recruits and the pull of breaking in a new offensive system.
One bit of good news is that the schedule is relatively friendly. The Tide open with Western Kentucky and South Florida before going on the road to face Wisconsin. They then get a bye to rest and retool before hosting Georgia. There are road tests at LSU, Tennessee and Oklahoma, but each of those teams has their own question marks entering 2024. There’s every reason to expect this Tide team to be no worse than 10-2, and l think the most likely outcome is that they finish the regular season undefeated.
And in 2024 that and $17 will buy you a coffee. The real question for me with this Tide team will be whether they can stay healthy for a playoff run. The transfer portal did real damage to Alabama’s trademark depth, and I don’t know that this squad has the pieces to absorb the body blows required to win a national title. That being said, DeBoer is off to a fantastic recruiting start, and while I wouldn’t want to be the man who follows The Man, I still think he’ll do okay (and eventually get fired due to Bama fans’ irrational expectations).
Score prediction: Bama 38, UGA 31 in overtime.
Go ‘Dawgs!!!