The NFL is finally coming out of the belt-tightening phase induced by the pandemic in 2020 that led to the first salary cap drop in decades. Those losses have been absorbed and the cap is back to growing at an even faster rate than before thanks to the league’s singleminded quest to make as many billions as possible. There are just six teams in the red in Over The Cap’s projected effective cap space for 2025 — a number that’s been twice as big in recent seasons.
Those teams will still have some tricky decisions to make this coming offseason to clear space and set themselves up for future success. In this five-part series, we’ll go in-depth for the bottom five teams in effective cap space, looking at which cuts and restructures could be on deck for each squad and the way in which each squad’s financial circumstance will dictate what the roster looks like in 2025.
First up, the Atlanta Falcons:
Atlanta Falcons: -$8,517,806
The last time I wrote about the Falcons’ salary cap, they legitimately had the worst financial situation of any team in the league. This included a Saints team that was perennially tens of millions in the red. Atlanta’s issue was less about the hole it dug itself and more that it had built an incredibly top-heavy roster which limited its options to create space.
The Falcons eventually navigated their way out and were big spenders this past offseason as they tried to capitalize on what they believed was a window of contention. At 6-6, things are looking a bit shaky, but there’s still a chance to turn things around, get into the playoffs and make some noise.
How things play out down the stretch is going to play a big role in this coming offseason, because the Falcons once again have a top-heavy roster and some big decisions to sort through.
Stay Or Go
Currently the Falcons have 35 players under contract in 2025, tied for the third-least among all 32 teams. There’s a long list of pending free agents, especially on defense, including several starters and notable role players.
- Centers Drew Dalman and Ryan Neuzil (100 percent combined snaps)
- S Justin Simmons (88 percent)
- CB Mike Hughes (65 percent)
- CB Dee Alford (61 percent)
- OLB Matt Judon (59 percent)
- LB Nathan Landman (51 percent)
- OLB James Smith-Williams (39 percent)
- OLB Lorenzo Carter (33 percent)
- DT Eddie Goldman (27 percent)
- DL Ta’Quon Graham (25 percent)
- DL Kentavius Street (20 percent)
- S Richie Grant (16 percent)
- WR Kha’Darel Hodge (16 percent)
Some of these players will be easier to retain than others. Landman and Alford are restricted free agents, while guys like Goldman, Graham and Hodge could be retained on cheap deals, perhaps a shade over the veteran minimum.
But the point is the Falcons aren’t going to be able to just run this team back without creating room elsewhere. Atlanta will need to be active to replenish the roster, plus address the deficiencies that have cropped up this season.
The Cousins Conundrum
The first step for the Falcons will be figuring out what to do with QB Kirk Cousins. He has the highest cap hit on the team next year at $40 million, $27.5 million of which comes in the form of a guaranteed base salary. Ordinarily this wouldn’t be a question less than a year after Atlanta paid $100 million guaranteed to sign Cousins as a free agent, but the unconventional selection of QB Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8 overall put a bomb on the depth chart behind Cousins that inevitably will dislodge him.
The only question is when, and the way the Falcons finish out the 2024 season could help answer that question. If they make the playoffs and go on a run, then Atlanta can stick with the plan of letting Penix develop on the bench behind Cousins, who will be 37 next year. That’s the ideal scenario the Falcons envisioned, at least from what they’ve said publicly.
If the current skid continues and the Falcons miss the playoffs, they could weigh moving on sooner. It will be complicated given Cousins’ age and the fact he has a no-trade clause, but there should be a way to find him another starting gig and clear his salary from the books. The impact to the cap would be minimal, just $2.5 million in savings if the Falcons trade Cousins, but they can move forward building around Penix’s cheap rookie contract.
If Cousins remains in the Falcons’ plans for 2025, they’ll have to discuss restructuring his contract. It would push more dead money into the future that would hit the cap when the Falcons and Cousins part ways, but it would add $17.5 million in cap space next year which is a massive chunk. If we fast forward to 2026, a restructure would make the dead money hit to cut Cousins $42.5 million. That’s a lot more than what it is now ($25 million) but still less than his projected $57.5 million cap figure, preserving Atlanta’s off-ramp in the deal.
Ultimately if the Falcons keep Cousins in 2025, I think they’ll restructure him. The cap savings are too much to ignore and it doesn’t compromise their future flexibility that much. There’s still more work for the Falcons to do, however.
Cuts, Restructures, And Maybe A Trade?
Let’s say the Falcons decide to keep Cousins and restructure him. The savings from that balanced against their current effective cap space should essentially create flexibility to fill out a full roster, sign the draft class and leave a little bit of cushion for in-season moves. Room for any other moves — including free agents, upgrades, budget for trades and other in-season transactions — will have to come from the following options.
First up, the top candidates for contract restructures:
- G Chris Lindstrom (28 years old), $14.5M base: $10M cap savings via restructure
- CB AJ Terrell (27), $14M base: $9.6M cap savings
- S Jessie Bates (28), $14M base: $6.4M cap savings
- WR Darnell Mooney (28), $9M base: $3.9M cap savings
- LT Jake Matthews (33), $15.5M base: $7.1M cap savings
Lindstrom’s base salary becomes guaranteed at the beginning of the 2025 league year, making him a good candidate for a restructure since Atlanta will be paying him no matter what and might as well spread it out over the remaining four years of his deal. Terrell’s 2025 base is guaranteed already and he also has four more years to spread the money out. Those two deals offer the most juice per squeeze.
Bates and Mooney are more borderline cases depending on how aggressive the Falcons want to be. Mooney’s salary is guaranteed in 2025 but he has just one more year under contract, limiting the potential savings. Bates might be the team’s best defensive player and has two more years under contract, but teams can move cautiously with defensive backs because the age cliff can hit sooner at that position than others.
Matthews is another interesting candidate because his deal also offers substantial savings if he’s cut ($9.2 million). He’s one of the oldest players on the roster, which means the Falcons will want to be careful about how much they commit to him at this stage in his career. He’s played relatively well this past season and cutting him would leave a massive void at left tackle, as there’s no obvious heir apparent on the roster. Leaving his deal untouched might be the best move, if the Falcons can afford it.
This is a good point to transition to other potential cut candidates — based exclusively on potential savings and not so much on performance:
- RT Kaleb McGary (30), $14.5M base: $14.5M cap savings
- DT Grady Jarrett (32), $15.25M base: $16.25M cap savings
- DT David Onyemata (33), $10M base: $8.1M cap savings
- LB Kaden Elliss (30), $5M base: $5.25M cap savings
- K Younghoe Koo (30), $4.25M base: $3M cap savings
McGary will be in a contract year in 2025. Like Matthews, he’s also been a decent starter. Neither player is a top-ten tackle (or at the very least it’s debatable) but both are solid and play premium positions. That makes it hard to envision the Falcons outright cutting either one. In the case of McGary, a contract extension could bring down his cap number if Atlanta’s comfortable with his play and his longevity now that he’s on the other side of 30.
Jarrett might be the headline departure. He’s getting older and the cap savings if the Falcons move on would be considerable. He’s still a relatively productive player, with 2.5 sacks and six tackles for loss entering Week 14. ESPN has him with the 11th-best pass rush win rate among all defensive tackles. But the Falcons’ defense as a whole has been a weak point this year.
One hint about Atlanta’s plans is tucked away in Jarrett’s contract. The veteran has a $1 million roster bonus due at the start of the 2025 league year. If the Falcons cut him after that date, that bonus will be deducted from the savings. It’s not much but it’s a mechanism teams and agents will put into deals to try and force a decision sooner rather than later, as opposed to the Falcons being able to squat on Jarrett all summer and force him into a pay cut in August when most teams have spent their money and built their depth charts. Deadlines drive action, and this could get the two sides to the table to renegotiate a deal or set Jarrett free in time for free agency.
Onyemata is in a similar boat as Jarrett. He’s similarly productive with two sacks and six tackles for loss, and PFF actually grades him out a tick higher than Jarrett. But the savings from cutting him at 33 years old are substantial, and Atlanta needs to revamp its defensive front this offseason. They rank near the bottom of the league in sacks and middle of the pack at best against the run.
Elliss and Koo are worth noting because of their age and potential cap savings if cut. Elliss has played 99 percent of the snaps on defense and been solid, so it would be a surprise if he’s cut. Koo has had some struggles but the Falcons have to decide if they’ll be able to bring in a better alternative. A lot of teams were looking for kickers before this season started and several established commodities have taken a step back as the season has progressed.
The last big decision to talk about for the Falcons — and one that’s flying a bit under the radar right now — is TE Kyle Pitts. He’s due $10.878 million guaranteed on the fifth-year option in the final year of his rookie contract in 2025. Once again, he’s not living up to the lofty expectations set by his draft pedigree and 1,000-yard rookie season. Pitts is fifth in the pecking order on offense with 35 catches on 54 targets, 494 yards and three touchdowns.
Being behind WR Drake London and RB Bijan Robinson is understandable. But the Falcons are making more of a concerted effort to get the ball to WR Darnell Mooney (87 targets) and even WR Ray-Ray McCloud (61 targets) than Pitts. Backup RB Tyler Allgeier (93 carries, over 500 yards from scrimmage) is arguably a bigger piece of the offense than Pitts.
The why behind Pitts’ lack of production could be a whole different article. He’s had some injuries and there have been comments from Cousins and other Falcons coaches suggesting they want to see more out of Pitts. Atlanta could probably do more to unlock him within OC Zac Robinson’s scheme. But the bottom line is that $11 million is too much of a premium for what Pitts is giving the Falcons right now. That should put a trade on the table.
Pitts’ potential could entice another team that thinks it can deploy him better. The salary would be a sticking point and impact the draft compensation Atlanta would get back but the chance to reset with more cap space, a draft pick and perhaps a player who better fits the system is arguably worth it.
Wrapping Up
The Falcons aren’t in cap hell and have plenty of options for how to proceed in 2025. There are going to be some big changes on the roster for the second straight year, though, even if they end up keeping Cousins. Notable free agents like Judon and Simmons could be out the door, veterans like Jarrett and Onyemata could be cut, and even trading Pitts is on the table.
If the Falcons restructured Cousins, Lindstrom and Terrell, cut Onyemata and either reworked Jarrett’s deal or cut him, plus traded Pitts, the team would have a budget of $60 million in cap space to work with in 2025. That’s a quality number to go after reinforcements on defense and try and get the team over the hump.
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