Concerning changes and improvements ahead.
The Atlanta Falcons have another pivotal offseason ahead. I would like this team to be so good that an offseason could be considered less consequential, but alas, we’re not there yet.
While the questions for this team are myriad and the answers days, weeks, and months away, we can still ask some big picture questions about this offseason for this team. None of these questions will surprise you, of course, but all of them have to be answered satisfactorily for the team to emerge better and stronger heading into 2025.
How will the staff change?
We ought to know the answer to this one quickly. Raheem Morris was noncommittal about Jimmy Lake’s future with the Falcons on Monday, and the lack of results from position groups on defense in particular could well imperil some first-year position coaches. Tim Berbenich will likely stay on as a passing game specialist and longtime Morris assistant, but I wouldn’t say the game management portion of his job duties appeared to go well. Jay Rodgers along the defensive line, Barrett Ruud at inside linebackers, and Justin Hood with the secondary all had decidedly mixed results from their position groups, so I wouldn’t necessarily count on all of them being back.
It’s important that the Falcons find a way to improve in 2025, and the defense is the obvious place to look after they were a huge trouble spot through much of the year, and after the offense improved so mightily with Michael Penix under center. An influx of talent is needed, but so is coaching that maximizes what that talent can offer.
Speaking of which, how will the Falcons rebuild the defense?
Let’s not sugarcoat how grim things look on this side of the ball right now. You have two elite pieces in the secondary in A.J. Terrell and Jessie Bates, one very good inside linebacker in Kaden Elliss, a promising and improving young outside linebacker in Arnold Ebiketie, and a couple of aging but effective interior defensive linemen in David Onyemata and the great Grady Jarrett.
Beyond that, there’s just not much that is either high-end or proven. Perhaps Ruke Orhorhoro and Brandon Dorlus make the leap, and Zach Harrison gets the snaps he likely deserves to show case his skills, boosting the front. Perhaps Troy Andersen stays healthy and delivers on the promise we saw early in the year, and Bralen Trice returns from injury to offer a big boost to the EDGE group. Maybe Clark Phillips and DeMarcco Hellams are ready to make the leap themselves. Perhaps, if, maybe.
Practically speaking, not all of those items are going to work out, and the Falcons have to be clear-eyed about that. Raheem Morris and company inherited a defense that had pieces that clearly no longer fit their vision—I’m looking at the likes of Dee Alford and Nate Landman in particular—and will need to go shopping to get closer to that vision. I have high hopes for Ruke, Hellams, and Trice in particular, and quality years from them will go a long way. But this team has too many question marks to half-ass an offseason again, and they can’t afford to miss on trades and signings like they unfortunately did with the well-received but ultimately shaky Justin Simmons and (especially) Matthew Judon acquisitions.
How can the Falcons ensure Michael Penix succeeds?
The shopping list on offense is shorter than on defense. The team has two top receivers locked up, two tight ends under contract who offer the offense potential (Kyle Pitts) and tremendous blocking (Charlie Woerner), a great running back duo, and 4/5ths of a quality starting offensive line. They have plenty to offer Penix as he steps into his first full year as a starter in the NFL.
But that’s not everything. The Falcons have to make a call on free agent Drew Dalman, who is a tremendous run blocker but an inconsistent player in pass protection who still has frustrating moments where he fires snaps too high. They need to decide if they feel comfortable with Kaleb McGary as his blindside protector, though one suspects they will after a solid three game stint to end the year in that role for McGary. And they should beef up their receiver depth to give Penix more speed downfield, sure-handed targets if anything happens to Drake London and/or Darnell Mooney, and a third tight end who can catch the ball if Pitts is laid up or ineffective.
The Falcons deliberately built up a coaching staff heavy on quarterback development and have an offensive coordinator clearly itching to play to Penix’s strengths, so this is really more about having the personnel to maximize the young quarterback’s considerable talent. They’ll have to get this done on a budget, but they need to ensure he’s well-protected and given the armaments he needs.
How will Raheem Morris and Terry Fontenot address their weaknesses?
It appears to be a lock that both head coach and general manager are returning. Both men had moments where they were clearly part of the team’s success, from the decision to draft Penix to Fontenot’s landing of Darnell Mooney and Charlie Woerner to Morris’s boldness on fourth downs. But their decisions also hurt the team in 2024.
For Morris, that was chiefly game management and lineup decisions. He could have perhaps parked Kirk Cousins one game sooner than he did, but I am fairly dubious that anyone in the organization was on board with that shift any earlier given the financial stakes and investment in Cousins. The bigger issues were trotting Younghoe Koo out there when he was injured and ineffective and allowing Troy Andersen to linger on the roster despite his obvious inability to play for weeks, when the Falcons could have been acquiring and coaching up a replacement instead of riding solely with Nate Landman and JD Bertrand. His game management mistakes were legion late in the season, from an inexplicable lack of timeouts in the Washington game that helped cost Atlanta the win to wishy-washy decision-making with field goal tries in general.
Morris can cure some of this by planning to be more decisive when players are clearly struggling or hurt, though I recognize those are more complex decisions from the outside. The bigger trouble spot is the in-game decision-making, and that’s where Morris can hone his own skills and make a hire with an eye on bringing aboard someone ready to challenge his decision-making when it goes awry. If he can improve in those regards, the team should also be better.
Fontenot, meanwhile, must get more out of his draft classes. The jury is still very much out on 2024 as I write this, but in his past four drafts, Fontenot has made 27 picks from Round 2 on and has come away with four starters (Drew Dalman, Arnold Ebiketie, Troy Andersen, and Matthew Bergeron), with only two of those players established as productive full-time players. Eight of those picks aren’t even on Atlanta’s roster right now. If that 2024 class can bear some fruit and Fontenot and company can put together a productive 2025 class, it will help a great deal.
Oh, and hopefully if Fontenot makes trades, they go better than recent ones for Van Jefferson and Matthew Judon have.