Atlanta will have three stumbling opponents and three good teams left when they exit the bye.
Week 13: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I personally think this is the most difficult game left on the schedule. At the start of the season, it was fair to wonder how pieces might gel in Jim Harbaugh’s first year on the job, and this team is still something of a work in progress.
But there’s a reason Harbaugh was the top coach on my wishlist, and it has everything to do with his success at every stop. He and this team’s brass have given Justin Herbert better protection, and Herbert has looked every bit like the superstar he ought to be, throwing 13 touchdowns against a single interception. J.K. Dobbins has been phenomenal and healthy, Ladd McConkey is one of the league’s most slippery slot receivers already, and Quentin Johnson is starting to look more like the player the Chargers thought they were drafting. The offense is still closer to league average than the top of the pile, but it’s an asset.
That’s all it needs to be, because the Chargers have one of the best defenses in football, a hallmark of Harbaugh teams. They’re tops in the NFL in terms of points allowed, already have 34 sacks, and are ridiculously stingy against the pass in almost every game except the one they just played against a game but doomed Bengals squad. There are very few weaknesses for this squad.
The Falcons will find that turnovers and the sloppy play they’ve put on the field the past two weeks will get them killed by this team. They’ll need to run early and often to attack a run defense that is very good but not impenetrable, aim to punish the Chargers deep the way the Bengals just successfully did, and hope their explosives-limiting game plan on defense can force the Chargers to slow down and fizzle out on a handful of drives. This is a daunting matchup, though, and after the past two weeks you’d be hard-pressed to predict anything but a loss.
Week 14: @ Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are an odd team, albeit a quality one. They have one of the league’s most withering pass rushes and perhaps the best run defense in football, but if you can hang in there against Brian Flores’ blitz-based funhouse, they have a secondary that can be easily exploited. They also have a talented, productive offense marred by excessive turnovers, one that went from scoring in gobs to not exceeding 23 points over the past month.
This is a winnable game, though it won’t be an easy one. The Falcons will have to figure out a way to keep Kirk Cousins clean against his former team, and they’ll need to put the clamps on Justin Jefferson, one of the league’s handful of all-world receivers. Beyond that, the Vikings have solid but unspectacular complementary pieces, including a solid but frequently banged up Aaron Jones at running back. Cousins’ recent habit of taking unnecessary sacks (and fumbling) and habit of throwing telegraphed interceptions will kill him against Minnesota, which has 35 sacks and 16 interceptions.
A settled-down and protected Cousins should be able to exploit an opportunistic but shaky secondary, and he’ll need to given that Minnesota’s run defense is a truly terrific unit. The fact that the Lions and Rams with their elite backs had some success suggests the Falcons can, too, but it’ll be a pass-heavy gameplan in all likelihood. The strengths that fueled Atlanta’s success against the Buccaneers, which came down to an unconscious Cousins and a defense that could slow things down enough for a mistake-happy quarterback to make some, will be necessary against Minnesota to earn the win.
One minor perk: This is a late season game being played in a dome, which means the Falcons won’t have to deal with cold weather outdoors.
Week 15: @ Las Vegas Raiders
We’re beginning to enter the interim coach bounce zone here, as the next two opponents could both conceivably fire their coaches at this point.
The Raiders are bad. They’re a bottom five scoring defense, bottom ten offense, and are both terrible at forcing turnovers and terrible at avoiding them on offense. The Panthers at least have a fantastic running back and the Giants at least have a withering pass rush and exciting young options on offense; the Raiders essentially have Maxx Crosby and Brock Bowers. This should be the most straightforward matchup left on the schedule.
Winning will require slowing down Bowers to some degree, which is not easy given that he’s been eating lunches all season long and is only picking up steam as the season goes on. If you can do that, the most intimidating secondary option in the passing game is the reliable but unspectacular Jakobi Meyers, and the ground game is one of the worst in the NFL. Throw in turnover-prone quarteback options in Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connel, and Desmond Ridder (we genuinely have no idea which one Atlanta will see) and you have a recipe for a rare quality day for this Falcons defense.
Offensively, you’re talking about facing a defense that has forced one fumble (seriously) and has just five interceptions on the season, with a solid pass rush and decent pass defense overshadowed by one of the league’s most putrid run defenses. This will be a day for letting Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier run wild with Cousins picking his spots, and if Atlanta can avoid the kinds of stupid mistakes that have doomed them against lesser teams this season, they should stomp the Raiders into the turf.
Week 16: vs. New York Giants
Another easier matchup, though not nearly as simple as the Raiders.
The Giants quietly have a terrific pass defense, something that’s incredibly impressive when you consider they have just a single interception this year. They’re getting it done with stingy coverage and one of the league’s elite pass rushes, a group that has 36 sacks as I write this. In a lost season, that’s a point of pride and a problem for Atlanta, which will have to be extremely sharp to achieve success through the air.
Fortunately, the run defense is more exploitable, which means the blueprint for success will be similar to the one the Falcons hope to employ against the Raiders. You’re going to want to run, run, run, and the outside zone is a particularly effective measure because you’re running at terrific pass rushers who are just passable run defenders instead of right after the monstrous Dexter Lawrence. This ground game is going to have to carry the Falcons down the stretch, but especially in this two game stretch.
Offensively, we’re not quite sure who will be under center for New York, but we know they won’t be great. Daniel Jones and Drew Lock are chaos merchants who make huge mistakes, while current starter Tommy DeVito is a limited passer who plays cleaner games. The passing attack can be dangerous with the likes of Malik Nabers, but there’s just not much to recommend the quarterback situation or the state of the offensive line.
Tyrone Tracy is a dangerous runner and receiver, however, albeit one with an early fumbling problem. He’s exactly the kind of a break-a-big-play back who could give the Falcons real headaches, and will likely be a focal point for the Giants in this game.
Again, though, this is a fairly straightforward matchup against a bad team. Avoid mistakes and stick to your strengths and you can win, even if there are likely to be some ugly moments aided by Tracy and that New York pass rush.
Week 17: @ Washington Commanders
The sheer amount of justified fanfare over Washington’s early season success and rookie sensation Jayden Daniels has obscured a truth about this Commanders team that I think is flying under the radar: They have more than a passing resemblance to the 2015 Falcons in Dan Quinn’s first year in Atlanta.
That team started off 5-0 and then collapsed, which the Commanders are not in danger of doing, and Washington actually got blown off the field by Tampa Bay in Week 1. But they followed that up with four straight wins, including a three week stretch where they scored over 30 three times and won by more than 20 points twice, and then lost a tough-luck game against the very tough Ravens and blew the Panthers out 40-7. They were 5-2 at that point and surging, with Daniels getting both Rookie of the Year and brief MVP buzz.
Perhaps it’s a temporary setback caused in part by lingering rib injuries for Daniels, but the past month has been much harder. The Commanders are just 2-2 over that stretch with two single digit victories over the Bears (on a last second, extremely lucky Hail Mary) and the woeful Giants. They lost by a point to the Steelers and lost by eight to the Eagles, looking non-competitive after an early surge in that last one. They’re far from the invincible squad they briefly appeared to be.
If this sounds like hate, it’s not, because it’s good to see Quinn successful somewhere else in his second stop and this is a team with the talent and the late season schedule necessary to make the playoffs. It’s an acknowledgement that as often happens to Quinn’s less-than-elite teams, there’s streaky play and teams figuring out tendencies at play here.
When the Falcons do face them, they’ll hope Washington isn’t surging again. Daniels has been sensational at times as a deep ball throw with great instincts and strong accuracy, and he’s complemented by a quality receiving corps and potent ground game keyed by Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler. Throw in the fact that Daniels is an excellent scrambler and you can already feel your teeth gritting watching this Falcons defense try to keep them in check; a failure to do so will lead to a very long day.
The pass defense will be a problem for Atlanta once again, just as I’d expect the Chargers, Giants, and to a lesser extent Vikings to be. They have not allowed over 206 yards passing since Week 6 against the Ravens and have been remarkably stingy through a combination of excellent secondary play and yet another potent pass rush, this one unbelievably led by Dante Fowler. The Falcons will have to beat the Commanders (where else?) on the ground, where the run defense is one of the league’s shakiest units, and one that seems unlikely to have an answer for Bijan and Allgeier. If the Falcons defense falls apart early and Atlanta has to throw their way back into this one, they’re likely cooked.
Even more so than Cousins meeting up with his former team, this is also a game with stories to follow, from Quinn meeting his old team to Cousins playing the squad he began his career with.
Week 18: vs. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are finding some signs of life, having strung together two wins and looking like an actual NFL team. I’m certain they’ll relish a potential chance to play spoiler with two games against the Buccaneers and this season finale against the Falcons still to go. The problem is that I’m not sure they’ll have the juice to do so unless Atlanta and Tampa Bay completely fall apart.
While Chuba Hubbard is dangerous and Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker are coming into their own at receiver, this is still one of the league’s weakest offenses, whether it’s helmed by Andy Dalton or Bryce Young. It’s a so-so offensive line with a small handful of weapons and limited players under center, and last time out the Falcons held them to just three points in the second half. Much would have to click before I’d worry about Carolina piling up the points.
Even if they did, the Panthers defense is a huge mess. On a day where Kirk Cousins was solid but unspectacular, the Falcons still put up 38 points, with Allgeier and Bijan combining for 200 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. The Panthers have allowed fewer than 400 yards just once in the past five weeks, and that came against a Giants team that just parked Daniel Jones because of it. Only the Giants have scored fewer than 22 points against Carolina this year.
Divisional games are weird and there’s no telling where these two teams will be in Week 18, so I’m not going to dismiss the Panthers out of hand. If the Falcons are reasonably healthy and still have something to fight for, though, this is the kind of matchup you want to close out the year.
What will Atlanta’s record be?
My preseason prediction was 10-7 and I’ll stick with that until I can’t any longer, which means the Falcons would have to go 4-2 down the stretch. That’s not a prediction I feel hyper confident in—the last two games have made it clear that injuries and shaky days can absolutely wreck Atlanta at any moment—but it’s an achievable result if this team is healthy and playing good football. Between 2-3 wins down the stretch feels likelier, but I don’t have to squint that hard to see the Falcons winning one of their games against Minnesota or Washington.
The team’s fortunes genuinely do depend on what version of this team we get, which is a little nerve-wracking. The team that fought Kansas City to the bitter end and handled their business against the Buccaneers, Cowboys, Panthers, and Eagles can probably go 4-2, with the late defensive heroics and sharper offense that suggests. The team that got blown out by the Seahawks and Broncos and dropped tough losses to the Saints and Steelers is a team with lackluster offensive output and a defense that bends until it fully breaks, and that version of this team is not guaranteed to beat anybody. That way would lie somewhere between 6-8 wins, a likely missed opportunity to make the playoffs, and madness.
What should be clear is that this is, while a more difficult stretch than expected to close out the season, hardly the kind of slate that should wreck what remains of 2024. Much will depend on what the Falcons can do over the bye week to get healthy and solve their most intractable problems.