Following a much-needed break after their ugliest defeat of the season, Atlanta aims to be recharged and refocused as their stretch of facing playoff opposition continues.
After reflecting during the bye week entering one of the best times of the year, it’s an appropriate time to assemble another roundtable discussion. Some will argue the Falcons are in a crisis period. Some will dispute how a first-place team can be in crisis.
If you have watched the Houston Texans play over the last month, however, it’s understandable how a first-place team can be in disarray. Witnessing how the Falcons looked completely overmatched in their first of three playoff-caliber matchups in Denver raised several red flags about the team going forward.
Nevertheless, a bye week could do wonders for a team, especially after being ravaged by injuries. Several starters and key role players may return for a pivotal matchup against a well-disciplined Chargers team. Reinforcements are needed on both sides of the ball, but what adjustments will the coaching staff make to maximize the offense and make the defense somewhat competent for this final stretch? That will be discussed.
This is the third roundtable of the season. It’s only going to get bigger with David Choate, Aaron Freeman, Tre’Shon Diaz, and Cory Woodroof joining me to dissect what the Falcons can do to get their season back on track. You can view the previous roundtables in early October and late October if you haven’t read one before.
What is one defensive personnel change that should be made coming out of the bye week?
Allen Strk: Regardless of whether Troy Andersen is healthy, the coaching staff can’t be confident in Nate Landman as an effective three-down off-ball linebacker in their scheme. Asking him to handle more coverage responsibilities and defend the run in light boxes has been a problem all season.
Ryan Nielsen was able to utilize him more in the box with varied personnel looks and coverage alignments. Jimmy Lake is heavily using nickel while significantly playing Cover 3. The lack of protection and unpredictability within the scheme has left him attempting to make sideline-to-sideline plays across the field. Landman doesn’t possess the agility and range to be that player on all three downs. After several poor performances, the coaching staff can’t afford to continue playing for 50-60 snaps a game.
Tre’Shon Diaz: Start Zach Harrison. The second-year defensive lineman is on pace to finish with 242 snaps after finishing with 343 as a rookie. In Week 11, Harrison had his best game of the year before going out at the top of the fourth quarter and looked comfortable operating between the 1T-3T alignments. It’s time to unleash him. The Falcons run struggles start with their defensive line. David Oneymata has heavily regressed, and players like Kentavius Street are nothing but stopgaps. It’s time to put faith in the future and lean on a guy who will be here for at least two more years.
Pro Football Focus has Harrison graded as the team’s top run-defending interior lineman, and the tape backs it up. Slow playing Harrison as he got his feet wet made sense for the season’s quarter one, but the snap counts have remained stagnant. If Harrison can continue to produce the way he has with a larger snap share, then the linebackers and defenders beside him will reap the rewards of his addition.
Cory Woodroof: I’d love to see Harrison receive more reps. He’s been one of the more reliable defensive linemen this season, but he’s only been able to rotate in and out as a part-time player. The Falcons need some of their young guys to step up, and Harrison getting starting reps may help him flash even more with added opportunity.
Dave Choate: I would find a way to add Khalid Kareem to the roster and get him significant snaps immediately.
If you look across this lineup, there aren’t too many spots where a simple swap-out makes a ton of sense. Troy Andersen’s return is good news and he’ll start, but the secondary is fairly set (and not as deep as perhaps we had hoped), the defensive line already features a heavy rotation and is down multiple options, and so on. That leaves the woeful outside linebacker group, where Lorenzo Carter just returned and looked every bit as shaky as he did earlier this season, and where the Falcons desperately need pass-rushing help with Carter, Matthew Judon, and Arnold Ebiketie all scuffling in that regard.
Kareem won’t be transformative, but he’s been quietly good the past two weeks. He had three of Atlanta’s eight credited pressures against Denver, which was a team-high, and showcased good moves and a running motor when the rest of the defense seemed to be flagging. With virtually nobody consistently getting after the quarterback, the Falcons can’t just keep banging their head against the wall with the same options. Kareem has done well and deserves to become a significant part of the rotation to see if he can keep it going.
Aaron Freeman: From a personnel standpoint, there should be a greater emphasis on letting some of the young players get more action. We’ve seen the Falcons make similar adjustments in previous years under former head coach Arthur Smith, such as Desmond Ridder replacing Marcus Mariota, Troy Andersen replacing Mykal Walker, and DeMarcco Hellams replacing Richie Grant after bye weeks.
More action for rookies Brandon Dorlus and J.D. Bertrand, along with increased reps for Harrison in the front seven, would be beneficial, with an eye toward 2025 to figure out if they might be able to play significant roles.
Do the Falcons need to be more run-first to keep the defense off the field as much as possible and take some pressure off Kirk Cousins?
Allen Strk: It will depend on the matchup from week to week, but there is no denying how more lethal the Falcons are when they impose their will on the ground. It was pivotal in wins over Philadelphia and Carolina. Since they can’t count on their defense to control the line of scrimmage and stop the run, the onus falls on the offense to gain control of the pace with their prolific running back tandem.
They know how punishing they can be when the flow is steady and the offensive line is firing off the line of scrimmage. Although the game script could make it difficult to sustain a run-first approach, Zac Robinson can’t allow the running game to be an afterthought with how the team is constructed. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are too talented not to give them consistent carries. The offensive line is built to thrive as a run-blocking unit. For Atlanta to get back to their winning ways, they need to run the ball more on early downs and not put Cousins in numerous third-and-long situations.
Tre’Shon Diaz: I wouldn’t say run first, but Atlanta does need to be more balanced. The Falcons have run 390 pass plays to 290 run plays; their 42.6% run rate ranks 18th overall per NFL Pro. Hovering near the average is decent, but with the talent in the backfield, Atlanta should be north of the average instead of south of it. The Falcons start relatively balanced but need to stay committed to the run. One issue is that the offense gets too many back-breaking penalties that force them into passing situations. I also think Zac Robinson has fallen into a habit of letting score dictate his playcalling too much.
Atlanta’s first-half defense has been abysmal for most of the season, giving up more points and yards than they do in the second half. So, while it is frustrating to see the Falcons go away from the run early, it’s understandable. This defense performs worse when they’re 100% fresh, and while short offensive drives from their team negatively impact them, their penchant for giving up long-sustaining drives is the main culprit. That has always been a downside of a bend-don’t-break defense, which was apparent during the short-lived Dean Pees era.
Cory Woodroof: The run game is the team’s premier strength, so leaning on it down the stretch should be a major priority. Kirk Cousins has his physical limitations this season. They likely won’t get better until 2025. There is no shame in being a run-first team. It might be the best way to get wins in December.
David Choate: I think they do. The issue in the immediate future is that the Vikings and Chargers have two of the better run defenses in the league, but the Giants, Panthers, and Commanders are among the league’s worst. The Falcons pride themselves on their run blocking and should have Drew Dalman back at center coming out of the bye, so they shouldn’t be shying away from running the ball.
Anything that takes pressure off Cousins and the passing game will be huge, especially with some legitimately good pass rushes coming down the stretch. Cousins has fumbled 11 times (his career-high is 13) and has not consistently been able to get rid of the ball quickly or make good decisions under pressure, and that will be fatal if it continues and the Falcons have to go with a predictable, pass-heavy script. It’s a far better idea to hand the keys to Robinson and Allgeier in the hopes of wearing defenses down and splicing in play action.
Aaron Freeman: This offense is most potent when balanced, so leaning on the run game makes sense. But the Falcons need to be a bit more diverse in their approach. Outside and inside zone runs are their bread-and-butter plays and should remain the bulk of their foundation, but sprinkling in more diverse concepts like duo, counter, and jet sweeps would help keep defenses on their toes a bit more.
How much can Drew Dalman’s return elevate the offensive line?
Allen Strk: The former fourth-round pick should make a massive difference with his athleticism, intelligence, and positioning to get to the second level. As well as the running game has thrived at times, Robinson and Allgeier are doing more from an individual standpoint than a coaching staff would like. The combo blocks haven’t been the same without Dalman. Although Ryan Neuzil has performed valiantly, he has struggled to make those crucial reach blocks leading to minimal gains. Picking up stunts has been challenging with Neuzil being a step slow or failing to recognize schemed pressure at times.
Dalman has limitations in pass protection, but what he brings to the running game and how he works in unison with the interior line is extremely valuable. That was evident in the offensive line dominating the Eagles’ front in an epic primetime win. This offensive line can raise their game a few levels with Dalman back.
Tre’Shon Diaz: The return of Dalman will elevate the Falcons run game, especially between the tackles. Neuzil has filled in well, but his lack of raw strength and power separates him from Dalman. Dalman’s push from the interior has been missed, whether he’s working double teams with either guard or climbing to the second level of hunting linebackers. Atlanta has slowly mixed in inside rushing concepts as the season has progressed but has yet to make them a bigger part of the offense.
That’s likely due to Neuzil not being as well-equipped for those run plays. Bijan has excelled at running between the tackles, dating back to his career at Texas. Getting him more of these opportunities should positively affect him. Communication across the line should also improve with Dalman’s return, leading to better execution. The timing couldn’t be better, as Atlanta is set to face some lackluster run defenses over their next six games.
Cory Woodroof: Neuzil has done an admirable job filling in for Dalman, and it’s to Neuzil’s credit that the uptick in Dalman’s return might not be more than you’d expect. However, Dalman is an elite run blocker and solid pass protector. He should improve the center position in both facets once he gets settled.
David Choate: It’s an upgrade, but a more on one facet. On the run blocking side, Dalman is perhaps the most potent center in the NFL, consistently grading well in Pro Football Focus’s run blocking metrics. That matches the eye test, as he moves well and delivers well-timed, effective blocks; it’s no exaggeration to say that getting Dalman back perhaps single-handedly opens up the Falcons to run up the gut more consistently and effectively. His ability to male blocks at the second level will also help a great deal. The Falcons badly need Dalman to finish the year on a strong note on the ground.
But in terms of pass protection, I’m not really expecting an upgrade. Ryan Neuzil was a solid option in pass protection at center and is probably no worse than Dalman in that regard overall. The Falcons will likely want to lean on the run more down the stretch and Dalman should provide a huge boost there, but we’re unlikely to see Cousins magically working in comfortable pockets again with him back. It should still be a net upgrade.
Aaron Freeman: Dalman is a superior blocker to Neuzil in every way, whether it’s controlling the point of attack, climbing to the second level to take out linebackers, or calling out blitzes. That isn’t a shocking revelation, given his extensive experience and athleticism. I’m most excited about the improved second-level blocking upon Dalman’s return. That should open up more cutback lanes for Robinson to bust long runs.
Should the defensive coaching staff consider blitzing more frequently or use varied coverage looks to disrupt quarterbacks more often?
Allen Strk: They need to do anything at this point with their stars leading the way. When assessing the personnel and coaching staff, the secondary should be trusted more to play different coverage looks. Why not run more Cover 1 to allow Justin Simmons to be more in the box with Jessie Bates roaming the back end to make more game-changing plays? Why not use more dime packages to hide the linebacker coverage limitations? Why can’t man coverage be used more often against limited receiving corps like the Chargers and Raiders?
The secondary is the biggest strength of a defense with several significant flaws. Trust the unit with arguably the best safety in the league, a borderline top-ten corner, and another savvy safety with excellent leadership qualities. The blitzes have been largely ineffective unless Kaden Elliss is involved. They should depend on their star power rather than continuously run predictably sluggish schemed pressures.
Tre’Shon Diaz: Increasing the blitz frequency could be beneficial. Atlanta currently ranks 18th (25.8%) in blitz rate per NFL Pro. That being said, I think using a variety of coverages would be more impactful and maximize the current blitz rate. According to PFF, on average, the corners and safeties are only in man coverage 16.9 % of the time. Atlanta’s corners are in man at some of the lowest rates across the league. They are compounding this issue by running primarily off coverage at the line of scrimmage. The Broncos noted this and went after the Falcons off coverage looks, making them pay by exploiting them through the screen game.
Even if you are running zone, that doesn’t mean you have to give teams a free release or let their playmakers catch the ball in space. It’s unlikely that a significant shift to man coverage will happen after 11 games of playing primarily zone, but a slight shift in coverage and adjustment to how corners start their reps would go a long way. The goal is to get the quarterback to hold onto the ball as long as possible. With how easily Lake makes life for opposing quarterbacks, the pass rush doesn’t even have a chance most weeks.
Cory Woodroof: Yes, if it’d work. The defensive coaching staff should be open to doing anything to get this unit back on track. No idea should be off-limits. If more consistent blitzing produces stops and creates turnover opportunities, then do it by any means.
David Choate: I think you have to dig around in your bag of tricks and see what you can come up with, and that absolute should include more aggressive coverage, varied fronts, and more blitzing. The Falcons are below average in blitz percentage around the league but should be getting Andersen back, potentially opening the door for Elliss to be utilized more frequently as a blitzer. That would make a ton of sense given that Elliss is easily the team’s most effective pass rusher this year, as he’s leading the team in pressures despite not being asked to rush the passer nearly as often as the team’s edge group. Hell, Dee Alford and Mike Hughes have gotten some pressure on blitzes, so dial them up, too.
Atlanta has to understand that they have a limited group and their success stopping explosive plays is starting to fall apart, meaning it’s time to be more aggressive to make up for it. You have Bates and Simmons, ballhawks both, and sending additional pass rushers is about the only way they’re going to make the likes of Justin Herbert and Jayden Daniels uncomfortable. It’s time for Lake to cook up something new, and I promise I’ll forgive a handful of teeth-gritting big plays if the Falcons can start generating big plays of their own.
Aaron Freeman: Yes, blitz more! Emphatically. Yes, blitz more! This was a change that Raheem Morris implemented upon taking over for Dan Quinn as interim head coach back in 2020. Dialing up more pressure does make the defense vulnerable, but at this point, with the season on the line, people will forgive them for getting burned a few more times from a more aggressive approach. Especially if it results in a few more negative plays for opposing offenses that create more stops for a defense that has struggled to make them.