We’re gearing up for the game tomorrow, so let’s check in with this week’s opponent.
The Philadelphia Eagles look like a tough matchup on paper, but it always helps to know more about the week’s opponent. Will Jalen Hurts dominate or give Atlanta some chances with turnovers? Will this be the Saquon Barkley show? What defensive weaknesses can the Falcons attack?
I asked those questions to get a better feel for the matchup with Brandon Lee Gowton at Bleeding Green Nation, and you’ll find his thoughtful answers alongside my questions below. My responses to his questions are over at BGN right here.
Dave Choate: Jalen Hurts threw as many interceptions in 2023 as he threw in 2021 and 2022 combined, and he’s already tossed two this year. Is this something that’s concerning for Eagles fans, is it something you expect to even out, or is it just the price to be paid for a talented player who is willing to take chances?
Brandon Gowton: Definitely a valid concern! I wrote the following in one of my previews for Monday’s game:
“Dating back to Week 1 last season, Hurts has 23 giveaways in 19 games played. That’s just too many. He had just nine giveaways in 18 games during his excellent 2022 season.”
I’m not worried that Hurts *can’t* take care of the ball because we’ve clearly seen him do it before. And part of why it was so surprising to see him with three giveaways in Week 1 was because he did a great job of not putting the ball in harm’s way during training camp. Hurts only threw one interception over the course of 16 practices and it wasn’t like he had a bunch of picks that got dropped.
For what it’s worth, Hurts has done a good job of taking accountability for his mistakes in the aftermath of Week 1. I do expect him to be better than he was in that game, which I’m willing to believe was a bit anomalous. But it’s going to be difficult to keep giving him the benefit of the doubt if the turnover trend continues with more miscues on Monday night.
Dave Choate: How did Cam Jurgens look in Brazil as he took over for Jason Kelce, and how are you feeling about Jurgens and Mekhi Becton against a Falcons interior defensive line that ranks as one of the team’s biggest strengths?
Brandon Gowton: There was always to be *some* kind of drop off going from a future Hall of Famer to a guy entering his first NFL season as a full-time starting center. And that’s not even a slight to Jurgens as much as it is a testament to Kelce’s greatness.
And, sure enough, we saw some issues with two fumbled snaps and two failed Brotherly Shoves. The Eagles clearly need to refine the operation between Jurgens and Hurts.
But there was more good than bad in Week 1. Pro Football Focus marked Jurgens down for just one pressure allowed (a “hurry”) in 38 pass rush opportunities. Jurgens also helped to pave the way for reigning NFC Offensive Player of the Week Saquon Barkley, who rushed 24 times for 109 yards (4.5) average and two touchdowns. All told, Jurgens ranked 10th out of 32 centers graded by PFF. Encouraging start.
Becton hardly looked out of place for a massive offensive tackle making his first regular season start at guard. The big man did allow two pressures (two “hurries”) in 38 opportunities. Pass protection is the bigger concern with him than run blocking, where he’s able to use his size to easily shove defenders around at times. Becton ranked 20th out of 50 guards graded by PFF.
It should be noted that Jurgens and Becton were likely aided by last week’s slippery field neutralizing the Packers’ pass rush to some extent. I do expect them to be challenged more by the likes of Grady Jarrett, who looked pretty great against the Steelers in Week 1. That should be a good battle in the trenches.
Dave Choate: Saquon Barkley looked really good against the Packers. Will we see another heavy dose of him Monday night, or do you expect the Eagles to focus the attack on a Falcons cornerback group that just had its struggles with George Pickens?
Brandon Gowton: Indeed, the Eagles leaned heavily on Barkley and I don’t expect them to go away from that. I know the Falcons did a nice job of limiting Najee Harris…but, let’s be real, he’s not even that good and it’s pretty bizarre that the Steelers insist on pretending he’s a better option than Jaylen Warren. But I guess weird running back usage doesn’t surprise you as former Arthur Smith observers.
Anyway, yeah, Barkley is going to be a big factor. The way the Eagles were willing to let him carry such a major load against the Packers really stood out to me. They haven’t been willing to ride a running back that hard in some time. And it’s hard to blame them when Barkley looks pretty great. He basically checked every box in Week 1: he ran through tackles with power, he made quick cuts to elude defenders, he exploded for a long run, he made a leaping catch along the sideline in the end zone, he didn’t struggle to hold up in pass protection.
That being said, the Eagles do still have A.J. Brown (assuming his unexpected hamstring issue doesn’t prevent him from playing), DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. They’re going to get their fair share of targets. I think it could be an especially big game for DeVonta, who’s playing in the slot more often now than ever before. The Eagles are going to test the middle of the field against the Falcons more than the Steelers did, which was not at all.
Dave Choate: Put yourself in Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson’s shoes for a moment. He had very little luck getting this offense rolling against Pittsburgh, so how can he have more success against this Eagles D? Who might the Falcons be able to pick on a little bit?
Brandon Gowton: I’m sure I’m not alone in wondering if there’s only so much that can be done if Kirk Cousins just isn’t 100%.
That said, the two big things I’d be looking to try:
1 – Running the ball! The Eagles allowed 21 carries for 163 yards (7.8 average) and one touchdown on the ground last week. Josh Jacobs, who could be poised for a bounce-back season, deserves some credit for being a good player. But the Eagles’ defense also deserves blame for poor run fits. If I’m the Falcons’ offensive coordinator, I’m giving the ball to Bijan Robinson over and over until the Eagles prove they can stop him.
2 – It remains to be seen exactly how the Eagles will handle their nickel cornerback situation. Entering Week 1, there was thought that it could be first-round rookie Quinyon Mitchell moving inside to the slot with Isaiah Rodgers coming in to play on the outside. But Mitchell looked good against the Packers and the Eagles might not want to move him. If that’s the case, it could be Avonte Maddox or rookie Cooper DeJean at nickel CB. Maddox struggled against the Packers and DeJean is wholly untested. I wouldn’t quite be looking to do what the Falcons did last week where it resulted with Ray-Ray McCloud leading the team in targets. Rather, I’d be trying to get bigger targets like Drake London and Kyle Pitts matched up against the much smaller Maddox.
Dave Choate: What’s your prediction for this game, and where do the Eagles end up in the NFC’s pecking order at season’s end?
Brown’s uncertain health status is troubling. But even if he can’t play, the Eagles should still have enough talent to put up points. I know the Falcons’ defense did well to keep the Steelers’ offense out of the end zone in Week 1. But I’m probably Justin Fields’ biggest skeptic and, again, the Steelers are only self-sabotaging with how they use their running backs. Barkley figures to be a much bigger challenge for Atlanta’s defense to deal with. And I think Hurts will be especially cautious with his decision-making after three turnovers in Week 1.
When it comes to defending the Falcons’ offense, Cousins’ limitations seem to be a real issue that’s hard to work around. Running the ball won’t be so easy if the Eagles don’t have to fear the Falcons’ passing attack.
The Eagles have beaten a much more effective version of Cousins each of the past two years (both in Week 2 just like this game is, oddly enough). We all know he’s never great in prime-time anyway. Eagles fans figure to be fired up since this is the team’s true home opener (after playing a “home” game in Brazil last week) and the team will honor recently retired Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles. Eagles win, 27 to 17.
I expect the Eagles to win their division since there hasn’t been a repeat winner since 2004 and thus the Dallas Cowboys can’t possibly clinch it again this season. I’d currently rank only the San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions over them. So, let’s say they end up with the No. 3 seed.