Despite relatively bad vibes surrounding the Falcons heading into the 2025 season, a clear majority of fans expect Atlanta to outperform their 7.5-win projection.
The vibes surrounding the Atlanta Falcons are…not great at the moment. A lackluster free agency period perpetuated by a lack of salary cap space has dampened the spirits of the fanbase, but there’s a long way to go before the season kicks off in September. The 2025 NFL Draft could certainly change minds, depending on what Atlanta is able to accomplish, and there’s obviously tons of hope surrounding 2024 first-round quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
Earlier this week, we asked Falcons fans how they were feeling about the team’s over/under projection of 7.5 wins, per FanDuel Sportsbook. Given the aforementioned bad vibes, I was expecting fans to be pretty evenly split on this topic. But that was incorrect, as Falcons fans are apparently much more optimistic than I am at this stage.
Fans are smashing the over, with an overwhelming 68% majority taking more than 7.5 wins for Atlanta in 2025. That means the expectation is for the Falcons to win at least eight games, matching (or potentially exceeding) their 2024 total. With the team slated to play what looks like, on paper, a more difficult schedule in 2025…that could be easier said than done.
My baseline assumption is usually that Atlanta will split with the NFC South, so that’s four wins. I’d expect the Falcons to be road favorites against the New England Patriots and New York Jets, but otherwise, I’m not sure about the rest of the schedule. That being said, those games alone get you to six wins, so the Falcons would just have to find a couple more between their NFC South foes, the Arizona Cardinals, Indianapolis Colts, Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins, etc.
That seems potentially do-able, and I doubt you’ll find anyone who expects the offense to regress under Penix. Reasons for concern would obviously be the departure of veteran center Drew Dalman, and the overall state of the defense—which hasn’t improved on paper thus far.
I’m sure we’ll revisit this number after the draft, and it’s likely to shift a bit between now and the start of the season. But as it stands now, I have to applaud fans’ optimism. I don’t know if the assumption of over is “eight wins” or “more than eight wins”, and I assume that few are expecting the Falcons to vault themselves into double-digit wins and/or playoff contention territory. But eight wins is at least solid football, and not the dumpster fire that we’ve seen from this team in the past decade (looking at you, 2020).
What are your thoughts on the Falcons win total for 2025? Do you expect Atlanta to go over or under 7.5 wins next season?