The Falcons should prosper by featuring the run game in Week 18.
Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson is not the Atlanta Falcons coach who let the team down the most in their disappointing loss to the Washington Commanders last week. However, his play-calling choices still deserve plenty of scrutiny thanks to a lack of run-pass balance.
The Falcons were too pass-happy against Washington, contributing to the inconsistency of rookie quarterback Michael Penix, who came back down a bit to Earth after a promising debut against the New York Giants the week before. While Penix’s late-game heroics against Washington a worth highlighting, it came on the heels of three quarters of erratic play.
According to PFF, Penix’s adjusted completion rate, which doesn’t penalize quarterbacks for drops, batted balls, and throwaways, was 56 percent against Washington. That figure marked the lowest of any of the league’s Week 17 starters and is, in fact, lower than the season-long adjusted completion rate of 60 percent from Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson, whose struggles with accuracy are well-documented. Accuracy was one of the most significant concerns with Penix as a prospect, and that was on display this past Sunday.
Falcons couldn’t find the right balance against Washington
Robinson seemed too eager to show off his new, shiny toy at quarterback rather than constructing a game plan to help his young passer and the team win by running the football. This week, against the Carolina Panthers, Robinson hopefully won’t make that mistake again.
On the Falcons’ first two possessions against Washington, they ran 16 plays, including 12 passes to only four runs. Only three of those passes were successful, averaging 4.3 yards per attempt. Meanwhile, all four called runs were successful, averaging 6.3 yards per attempt. As the game wore on, the Falcons began to lean more on their run game, throwing just nine times compared to 13 runs for the remainder of the first half. Again, they still had a low success rate of 33 percent when putting the ball in the air, compared to 77 percent on the ground.
Despite this, the Falcons reverted to their pass-first attack in the second half. They ran nine plays on their opening two possessions, throwing the ball seven times to just two runs. Neither run was successful, but their passing game hardly picked up the slack, with a success rate of 29 percent. The next time the Falcons got the ball, they were down 24-17 with less than five minutes remaining in the game, so their pass-centric play-calling made sense from then on.
Falcons’ run game was more diverse and effective in Week 17
A big part of the team’s rushing success against the Commanders came thanks to diversifying their run game more than usual. They unveiled a few new run concepts, including the direct snap to Bijan Robinson that resulted in a one-yard touchdown. For the first time, they also utilized “crunch,” a run play popularized by the Detroit Lions.
Before Sunday, about 52 percent of the Falcons’ run plays were categorized as outside zone by FTN Fantasy. Against the Commanders, that number dropped to 44 percent, which inches towards the tendencies of other NFL offenses. As noted a month ago, the Falcons’ over-reliance on outside zone is out of whack with the current rushing trends elsewhere around the NFL.
Looking ahead to this Week 18 finale against the Panthers, the Falcons should easily find rushing success. The Panthers sport the NFL’s worst run defense by nearly every metric, whether it’s rushing yards, yards per carry, DVOA, Expected Points Added, or PFF grades. They have given up 200 or more yards rushing seven times this season, including in each of the past five games. That stat would look even worse without a couple of kneel downs keeping the Falcons at 198 rushing yards in their 38-20 win over the Panthers back in Week 6.
However tempting it may be to ask Penix to drop back nearly 40 times this week to air it out against one of the NFL’s worst defenses as another opportunity to evaluate their young quarterback’s potential, Robinson must resist it. That won’t mean that Penix’s passing won’t be on display in a run-centric game plan since third downs still exist.
Penix should find more success on third downs against Carolina
The Falcons struggled on third downs last week, converting twice on 10 attempts. Fortunately, Penix proved more effective on fourth downs, converting both crucial attempts on the game-tying drive at the end of regulation. Yet, getting Penix into more manageable situations should prevent similar third-down struggles from repeating this week. The Falcons can do that by leaning on their rushing attack on early downs. Doing so should allow more opportunities to continue diversifying their rushing portfolio as they did last week.
In addition to their struggles to stop the run, the Panthers also sport the NFL’s worst third-down defense. That is owed to their struggles on third-and-short, where they’ve allowed a league-worst 65 percent conversion rate when offenses have six or fewer yards to go. However, their third-down defense looks much more competent with seven or more yards to go, ranking 15th with a 25 percent allowed conversion rate.
A message to Zac Robinson: “Don’t get cute.”
Robinson shouldn’t overthink this. He only has to look at the Falcons’ last matchup against the Panthers to understand the type of balance he needs to scheme. In Week 6, the Falcons ran the ball 34 times to 30 passes. But even then, Robinson’s tendency to want to throw the ball showed itself early, with seven of the first 10 plays being passes before the run game took over. Given that the then-starting quarterback was coming off a 509-yard passing performance, that is much more forgivable than what Penix put on tape last week.
While everybody is eager to see Penix airing it out as he so often did at the University of Washington, patience is a virtue. Down the road, the identity of the Falcons offense may revolve around Penix’s big arm. However, for now, the Falcons’ overriding goal should be doing whatever is most advantageous to finishing the 2024 season with a win.
Which is pretty simple: run the damn ball!