With the offseason coming to a close and the NFL schedule released, we finally have our first look at the Week 1 odds. The Falcons are only slight home favorites over the Steelers in the Arthur Smith revenge game.
The offseason has ended and the NFL schedule has been officially released. At long last, we know the identity of the Atlanta Falcons’ opponent in Week 1: the Pittsburgh Steelers. The “Arthur Smith revenge bowl” should be an entertaining contest, and the oddsmakers seem to agree: the Falcons opened as just 2.5-point home favorites against the Steelers per DraftKings Sportsbook.
At first glance, that number might seem a little low—until you realize that Atlanta hasn’t beaten Pittsburgh since 2006 and has an abysmal 15-2-1 all-time record against the Steelers. So it’s understandable that the oddsmakers are hesitant to give the Falcons too much credit, despite Atlanta probably having the superior team on paper.
The Steelers are going through a rough patch on offense, as they’ve failed to find a capable starter at quarterback since Ben Roethlisberger left. Pittsburgh made significant changes at quarterback this offseason, signing Russell Wilson to a minimal contract and trading for former Bears starter Justin Fields. Neither is a particularly inspiring option at this stage, as both were below-average starters in 2023. Still, it’s hard to see either being a worse option than Kenny Pickett, who managed just 2,070 yards and 6 TDs (4 INT) in 12 starts last season.
Atlanta, meanwhile, signed the best available quarterback in free agency in Kirk Cousins to fix a very similar issue. Assuming Kirk is healthy for Week 1—which seems likely, but isn’t a given and is factoring into the odds as well—the Falcons should have the superior quarterback and a better overall offense. However, the Steelers did have a top-10 scoring defense in 2023 and could be a tough opponent for the new-look Falcons.
The other big questions in this one will be surrounding Atlanta’s defense and Pittsburgh’s offense. There’s little doubt that the Falcons overachieved defensively in 2023, and the coordinator behind that near-miraculous turnaround is now out of the building. I’m as optimistic about Raheem Morris and Jimmy Lake as anyone, but I think some regression is inevitable.
The Steelers, meanwhile, brought in Arthur Smith to try and revive an underperforming offense. That seems like an odd strategy, particularly given the team’s needs. Arthur Smith was typically able to engineer a quality run game, but his passing games were abysmal. Pittsburgh seemingly has the receiving talent to make that part of the offense a strength, but hired a coach who has struggled with that throughout his career. Smith’s tenure was also marked by a failure to acquire a competent quarterback, and the acquisition of a declining Russell Wilson feels like it could be problematic. Or perhaps Wilson will be his new Ryan Tannehill, who knows!
What do you think about this Week 1 line for the Falcons?