In control of their destiny with two games remaining, Atlanta aims to capitalize on a golden opportunity.
January 13, 2018, was the last time the Atlanta Falcons played in a must-win game where high expectations were placed on them against a top-tier opponent. Facing the eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles in a difficult environment on a cold Saturday night in the divisional round presented one of the biggest challenges a team can ask for.
Although the Falcons fell short and haven’t come close to returning to the playoffs since then, it serves as a reminder of how exciting the times were. Having a team capable of beating anyone, one with a clear identity and an opportunity to win a championship with a powerful team culture, is something every organization aspires to.
The Falcons haven’t played in a primetime game with massive implications since losing in Philadelphia. It’s been a long journey back to playoff relevance for a team battling through adversity to end Tampa Bay’s run as divisional champions. They want to get back to squaring off against the best teams on the biggest stage, including hosting a playoff game for the first time in Mercedes Benz Stadium.
Although Raheem Morris went on to win a Super Bowl in Los Angeles, he is aware of how long it’s been for the franchise to play in a playoff-like atmosphere. His close friend and coach he will face on Sunday night was at the forefront of the Falcons’ success in 2016 and 2017. Dan Quinn has done an extraordinary job uplifting the Commanders into becoming a playoff-worthy team. It will be a tremendous test to see if Morris’ team can beat a team of that caliber after falling short or capitulating late in several matchups this season. Led by a new promising quarterback, the Falcons are equipped to shine under the bright lights.
Ground Game Takeover
Containing the imminent offensive rookie of the year and one of the NFL’s ascending quarterbacks is the biggest priority when facing the Commanders. As proven last week against the Eagles, a top-tier defense can only do so much against a highly efficient offensive train with an electrifying conductor. The best way to limit Jayden Daniels is by keeping him off the field as much as possible. In losses to Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, Washington didn’t have the ball for more than 26 minutes in either game. A lack of possession leaves limited opportunities for an offense to get into a rhythm and maximize their game plan. That’s something the Falcons must do in imposing their offensive game plan.
Since they don’t have anywhere close to the defensive talent level that Philadelphia and Pittsburgh possess, the Falcons must prioritize leaning on their greatest asset. That stems from running the ball relentlessly draining the energy out of a slow defense and keeping them on the field. Washington is allowing the fourth most rushing yards per game. They have also allowed the fifth most 20+ yard runs this season. After an underwhelming run-blocking performance against the Giants, the Falcons have to work in unison to dominate on the ground. The skill position players have to win their matchups along with the offensive line.
As extraordinary as Bijan Robinson is, he needs more support to keep the chains moving. The blocking consistency boosts Tyler Allgeier’s punishing style, making him even more effective against fatigued defenders at the second level. Running the ball successfully with their prolific tandem will be more integral than ever in this matchup.
Constraining the Rookie Phenom
Daniels is already proving to be one of the toughest quarterbacks to contain. His command in the pocket, poise under pressure, anticipation throws, and deep ball accuracy are exceptional. Unlike most rookie quarterbacks, he doesn’t get rattled by the blitz. According to Pro Football Focus, Daniels has completed 65.6% of his passes with ten touchdowns and two interceptions when blitzed.
As much success Jimmy Lake has had dialing up blitzes recently, it would be wise to be more calculated in scheming up pressures to avoid a repeat of the debacle in Minnesota where Sam Darnold threw five touchdowns. Running more simulated pressures with Kaden Elliss leading the charge could be more effective in keeping Daniels in the pocket and limiting his ability to scramble.
The Falcons have experienced edge defenders in Matthew Judon and Lorenzo Carter who can maintain rush discipline and not give clear lanes to Daniels, though they have not always done so consistently this season. Arnold Ebiketie has improved on converting speed to power to his rushes to collapse pockets. If they can stay balanced with their rush plan or have one edge defender drop into coverage on simulated rushes, Daniels won’t be able to escape the pocket as easily to produce chunk plays.
Forcing the second overall pick to throw between the numbers is another sensible strategy to make him uncomfortable. Six of his eight interceptions have come from throwing in between the numbers, per Pro Football Focus. That includes three interceptions on passes between 11 and 20 yards.
By keeping him in the pocket and forcing him to throw toward the middle of the field more than usual, Atlanta’s defense can do enough to prevent him from putting on another sensational performance. That would likely involve another big game from Jessie Bates, who continues to make plays across the field and is always lurking over the middle. It also means a concentrated plan to contain one of the league’s most dangerous wide receivers.
Scary Terry Threat
Passer rating stats can be inflated at times. At other times, the high or low total matches what is displayed on the field. According to The Washington Post’s Nicki Jhabvala, Daniels’ passer rating is 140.0 when targeting Terry McLaurin. That shouldn’t surprise anyone when watching the Commanders play or seeing them connect on a highlight-reel play nearly every week.
McLaurin has been fully unleashed as the cerebral wide receiver gets the quarterback play he’s been yearning for years. It’s allowed his fantastic route running, outstanding hands, and impressive contested catch ability to be properly utilized in a well-constructed offense led by Kliff Kingsbury.
Morris and Lake have recently allowed A.J. Terrell to shadow opposing number-one wide receivers in man coverage alignments. The dependable corner fared impressively well against Justin Jefferson and Malik Nabers in isolated situations. As logical as it would be to have Terrell shadow McLaurin often, it’s not easy to execute based on the matchup. The Falcons played more man coverage against the Vikings and Giants due to the opposing quarterback’s limitations, though it completely backfired versus the Vikings.
Sam Darnold and Drew Lock can’t make teams pay with their legs by playing man coverage consistently. Other than Lamar Jackson, there isn’t a quarterback more capable of tearing defenses apart with their legs than Daniels. Not having a true three-down, sideline-to-sideline linebacker will also be an issue in man coverage when limiting scrambles.
The coaching staff will likely have to play a mixture of zone looks to account for Daniels. That makes positioning and communication even more pivotal on the back end to prevent high-percentage looks for him to connect with McLaurin. Most importantly, Justin Simmons and Bates will have to be organized in not allowing the prolific wide receiver to get behind them or break free on off-schedule plays. McLaurin possesses a terrific feel for finding space in coverage. Limiting his impact will put Washington in precarious situations given their lack of skill position talent elsewhere.
Remaining Aggressive Regardless of Inexperience
Building a more conservative approach for a rookie quarterback’s first start on the road would be completely understandable in most circumstances. In a must-win game facing one of the most productive offenses in the league, the coaching staff can’t afford to be overly cautious. Operating a more run-heavy game plan should be prioritized. The aggressiveness comes from a situational standpoint.
After going for it on fourth down consistently in the first two months of the season, they oddly opted for field goals in high-leverage situations in losses to the Saints and Vikings. Whether it was attributed to a lack of belief in Kirk Cousins or another unclear factor, Morris’ decisions were troublesome. He can’t afford to be ultra-conservative, especially with Riley Patterson taking over kicking duties and already proving far from reliable already.
What was most impressive about Michael Penix’s starting debut last week was his best plays occurred on third down. The Athletic’s Mike Sando shared that his top five EPA plays were on third and six or more yards against the Giants. While the matchup couldn’t have been more favorable in a comforting environment, it’s encouraging for a rookie quarterback to be decisive and accurate on third down. That instills confidence in a young player who can consistently produce when truly counted on.
Although the plan should be not to call more than 30 passes for him, the coaching staff has to be adaptable to the game flow and put Penix in strong positions to succeed. They can’t give drives away or attempt long field goals in a game with massive stakes facing a high-powered offense. A steady dose of varied play action concepts and spread looks can give Penix the platform to guide the offense and take valuable steps in his progression. If it results in having to go for a few fourth downs and attempting nearly 40 passes, that’s how it’s got to be for the team to earn their biggest win of the season.