How will the forecasted inclement weather affect the Falcons offense?

Specifically, Micahel Penix and the passing game.

The Atlanta Falcons will play their fifth primetime game of the year on Sunday night against the Washington Commanders, and inclement weather is on the horizon. The current forecast shows steady rain in the evening, lining up with the opening kickoff. Showers will continue late. The low will be around 50 degrees Fahrenheit. Winds will be SSW (south-southwest) at 10 to 15 miles per hour. The chance of rain is 90%, and the rainfall total will be near half an inch.

The Falcons will have to go on the road and win in bad weather to make the playoffs. If Kirk Cousins were starting this game, I’d be in a bit of a panic, but Michael Penix’s ascension to the starting role has quieted those nerves, and others should feel the same way.

It might seem odd to reach that conclusion so quickly after one modest statistical performance within a dome. However, Penix’s background and physical traits lead me to believe that the wind and rain won’t affect his ability to throw or Zac Robinson’s ability to call an effective passing game–just about everything should be on the table.

Mitts for hands

In a lot of ways, scouts and general managers are amateur anatomists. They learn the ins and outs of the human body and look for physical trends that could help them predict the viability of players coming into the league. No position is picked apart more than quarterback, and one trait that always comes up during NFL Combine season is hand size–Penix’s were the talk of the event.

Penix’s hands measured 10 ½ inches at the Combine. That puts his hand size in the Top 10 all-time for quarterbacks at the Combine, and they’re equal to Anthony Richardson, who’s the most physically gifted quarterback to come out in recent years. Kirk Cousins’ hands measure in at 9 ⅞ inches–respectable but not elite.

Simply put, bigger hands equal better control of the football, giving the quarterback an advantage when Mother Nature decides to intervene. This control was also displayed when Penix avoided a sack against the Giants in his debut. The rookie was able to hold onto the ball while being spun around by a defender before tossing it out of harm’s way and preventing a negative play. Even with the introduction of water, fans shouldn’t be nervous about Penix’s ability to protect or throw the football, and we have two years of tape to back that confidence up.

Forged in water

If you live on the East Coast like most Falcons fans, you probably missed the final year of the PAC12 after dark. Penix owned the night, regardless of clear skies or heavy showers and went undefeated at home in his Washington Huskies career. The rookie played ball in the PNW (Pacific Northwest), known for its grey skies and constant showers.

Penix didn’t just deal with rain on the occasional Saturday; it was an everyday occurrence for half the year. He played critical games in it, transformed himself in it, and even had his private workout with the Falcons brass in heavy rain. Raheem Morris noted how, even in those conditions, he could hear Penix’s balls zip over his head, which brings us to the next concern: the wind.

While the northwest is known for rain, heavy storms (wind gusts, thunder/lightning) don’t typically accompany precipitation here. That shouldn’t give Zac Robinson pause when devising the passing attack for this week’s game, and I doubt it has. There could be winds as high as 18 mph, but a quarterback with Penix’s arm talent can cut through the wind like a blade.

It’s less about the route concepts in this matchup and more about Penix dialing up the right pitch–more fastballs, less curve balls. Penix did a good job of varying his throws against the Giants and knew when to add some mustard. I would be more worried about his receivers dropping passes again than the quarterback’s inability to throw them.

Maintain balance

This doesn’t mean the Falcons should air it out all night, but it will allow them to stay balanced so that Dan Quinn’s defense isn’t able to load the box against Bijan Robinson–a notable advantage since lousy weather tends to make offenses more one-dimensional. Play-action boots and middle of the field opportunities will be available. If Penix can cash in on them as he did against New York, then Atlanta will have a chance to win this game and get one step closer to the playoffs (or clinch, depending on afternoon results.)

Penix showed a lot in his debut, but this is still the rookie’s second career start, and the Falcons don’t want to overload his plate on primetime. The team’s best-winning formula has always been to run behind Bijan and hit efficient shots, and that shouldn’t change with a more physically gifted quarterback, at least not yet. Penix should, however, make the second part of that equation easier to pull off, and he did in his debut. Still, the NFL is a “what have you done for me lately” league, and one can only boast about a zero-touchdown performance so much.

Michael Penix will have to prove to NFL fans that he can handle the pressure of primetime and elevate the team’s ability to succeed regardless of weather conditions. But it sure is nice to know that he’s already done so at another level.