Every team left on the schedule could give the Falcons fits on a good day. Here’s what to watch out for.
The Atlanta Falcons have found themselves in a position they have not been in a while when it comes to the playoff race this deep into the season: The driver’s seat.
After the bye, the Falcons are holding a narrow, one-game lead over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a significant tiebreaker that gives them additional cushion after sweeping them earlier this season. However, the Bucs have an important aspect going for them down the stretch: Their schedule is quite easy.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Remaining Schedule
Week 13: @ Carolina Panthers
Week 14: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Week 15: @ Los Angeles Chargers
Week 16: @ Dallas Cowboys
Week 17: vs. Carolina Panthers
Week 18: vs. New Orleans Sants
Finishing the season with a schedule featuring two Panthers games, a Desmond Ridder-led Raiders team, and whatever the Cowboys are currently is a great way to get yourself back into the playoffs. If the Falcons want to stave off a Bucs charge for a fourth-straight division title, they will have to traverse a back half of the schedule that looks like a much more rickety bridge to cross now that we’ve come to it.
Atlanta Falcons Remaining Schedule
Week 13: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Week 14: @ Minnesota Vikings
Week 15: @ Las Vegas Raiders (MNF)
Week 16: vs. New York Giants
Week 17: @ Washington Commanders
Week 18: vs. Carolina Panthers
On the surface, this stretch still feels very winnable. The Raiders, Giants and Panthers all feel like games this Falcons team should still win. Where Atlanta has to find that extra gear is against teams like the greatly improved Chargers under Jim Harbaugh, the dangerously efficient Minnesota Vikings, and the surprisingly explosive Washington Commanders.
Even in the games that Atlanta should take fairly handily, there are specific units from each team that keep me up at night. Each team has at least one troubling aspect that could derail Atlanta’s bid for their first division crown since 2016.
So, I decided to confront each troubling aspect head-on and list them out, just to see if Atlanta could somehow find an answer before the rest of this promising season slips through their grasp.
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert is a Cyborg
The Los Angeles Chargers have a cyborg at quarterback in Justin Herbert, and what’s worse is that he’s learning. Herbert is learning how to have fun playing the game of football again, and a comfortable Herbert feels like a really scary sight, especially for a defense as porous as Atlanta’s.
One of the arguments against this could be Los Angeles’ lack of weaponry at Herbert’s disposal. However, the Falcons don’t get pressure on quarterbacks, and that’s been a constant for as long as Falcons fans can remember. That could negate the shaky state of Herbert’s receiving options.
According to Next Gen Stats, Herbert is 2nd in the NFL in passer rating (115.4) when not pressured, only behind MVP-favorite Lamar Jackson. Barring a miracle, the Falcons aren’t going to get much pressure on Herbert in this go-around either, and that could make for yet another long day for the Falcons faithful.
Justin Herbert emphasizing ball security
: #BALvsLAC on ESPN/ABC
: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/yJ6XP5Suqt— NFL (@NFL) November 26, 2024
Minnesota Vikings: Brian Flores’ Bells and Whistles
Brian Flores had an entire offseason to learn what makes Kirk Cousins tick. What he likes to do, what he doesn’t like to see out of a defense, etc. Giving a creative mind like Flores that much information is a dangerous situation.
The Vikings disguise their intentions, both in the pass-rush department and coverage, more frequently than any team in the NFL. The Falcons’ offensive line has been one of the more stout in the NFL, however, having a stationary quarterback like Cousins against the various blitz combinations that Flores can deploy feels like a possible recipe for disaster.
Blake Cashman ready to take out the center and finds his way into an untouched sack pic.twitter.com/3fHLWegdoD
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) November 21, 2024
Las Vegas Raiders: Maxx Crosby is still here
This is my acknowledgment of the potential Desmond Ridder aspect of this game. This is all you get.
Coming into this season, one of the aspects to get excited about with this Raiders team was the defense and what it would look like under Antonio Pierce. While even that aspect of the team has underwhelmed (22nd in EPA/play allowed and defensive success rate), Maxx Crosby has still been one of the best pass-rushers in the league, ranking 13th in total pressures.
Some people will ask why not utilize this to highlight the incredible season that Brock Bowes is having, to which I will direct you to the first few sentences of this section.
Tough to block Maxx Crosby in run game with a TE so they bring in a 6th OL. Doesn’t matter, Crosby times up snap and shoots through back-side C gap for TFL. Good job setting the edge play-side by Tre’von Moehrig.#RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/uMt69g0yOS
— Ryan Holmes (@Rholm22) November 25, 2024
New York Giants: Piping Hot Pass Rush
It’s almost Thanksgiving and the Giants have not given their fans much to be thankful for this season.
The biggest gift they could have given their fans this holiday season is to forcefully end the Daniel Jones era, but even that wasn’t enough to keep their number-one receiver, rookie Malik Nabers, happy.
Despite the dysfunction on that side of the ball, the Giants have one of the more productive pass rushes in the league, ranking fourth with 36 sacks on the year. New York’s front, led by the always dangerous Brian Burns, could cause some headaches for the Falcons offensive line if they aren’t careful.
The #Giants send a four-man rush and get home with three.
Absolute dominance up front from New York. pic.twitter.com/PJ9S26Ws7g
— Nick Falato (@nickfalato) October 7, 2024
Washington Commanders: Scary Terry
Kliff Kingsbury’s ability to get the most out of this Washington Commanders offense is a beautiful thing to see, especially after how it felt after his tenure in Arizona ended. Now, he’s found an explosive quarterback in rookie Jayden Daniels to build the offense around.
Even more, we have seen the best version of all of the weapons in this Commanders offense, including the official arrival of Terry McLaurin into the top receiver conversation.
McLaurin’s 823 receiving yards and 7 receiving touchdowns rank 4th and 3rd among receivers, respectively, and he has been making it happen for this Commanders offense however and whenever possible.
According to Next Gen Stats, McLaurin is 2nd in the NFL in receptions over expected (+9.5) behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown. Given that the Falcons allow the fourth-most EPA/pass, McLaurin could make life hell for this Falcons secondary, authoring the big play the Falcons strive to avoid.
COMMANDERS 86-YARD TOUCHDOWN WOW
: #DALvsWAS on FOX
: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/apaNEKNCkh— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2024
Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young?
Well, I guess Bryce Young found his groove…
Young had maybe the best game of his career against the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, going 21-of-35 for 263 yards and a touchdown. He was scrambling outside the pocket, making quick decisions, getting the ball out quickly.
Simply put, the kid looked good.
Are there still plenty of areas of improvement?
Absolutely, but him getting comfortable just in time to potentially spoil Atlanta’s bid for an NFC South crown? Don’t write it off, and instead hope he’s at his best in two games against Tampa Bay down the stretch.
Not only the best game of Bryce Young’s career, but one of the best QB performances of this season pic.twitter.com/8AUFWkhaFc
— James Foster (@NoFlagsFilm) November 25, 2024