Total defensive regression leaves Falcons in precarious position

A one-sided defeat in Denver proved to be a harsh reality check for Raheem Morris and company . With a porous defense allowing opponents to impose their will, his team can’t control games.

A purposeful response was expected after losing to their biggest rival in a very winnable game. No matter how many players were missing going into Denver, the Atlanta Falcons had to come out with extra fuel after falling short against the Saints. They allowed a team with no business beating them to prevail by starting slow and making several self-inflicted mistakes.

Facing a Broncos team that continues to exceed expectations by being well-organized and resolute should have brought the best out of them, at least from an effort standpoint. Yet the Falcons couldn’t have been more soundly defeated in a humiliating defeat.

Bo Nix had time in the pocket to start preparing food for a Sunday feast. The communication was disappointing across the defense, particularly between the linebackers and defensive backs. A part of it can be attributed to Troy Andersen, Mike Hughes, and Dee Alford being sidelined. Still, the many breakdowns were too glaring to attribute their defensive issues to a lack of healthy personnel. The Falcons were allowing explosive plays at will, making a limited offense led by their old nemesis look like the 2009 Saints.

It’s evident that several key starters and veterans are no longer playing at the level they were expected to perform at. The way the defense is being run must be questioned first.

Losing in the Lake

Entering a crucial stretch facing three playoff-caliber teams, urgency from the beginning was required for them to fare well in these arduous matchups. Since Week 5 against Tampa Bay, the defense has allowed 17 or more first-half points in every game except against Dallas. That includes games against Carolina and New Orleans. The inability to start strong has left them either playing from behind early or requiring the offense to play a near-perfect game to stay in front. Repeatedly putting extensive pressure on your offense will lead to some games going awry, as it did against Seattle and Denver.

There are plenty of flaws in Jimmy Lake’s scheme. From playing with constant light boxes to lackadaisical pressure ideas to using almost exclusively nickel looks, the simplicity in his methods are making matters worse for the overall unit. Watching Nix throw the ball without resistance toward the intermediate to deep middle of the field under Sean Payton’s stewardship was reminiscent of Drew Brees doing whatever he wanted against some of Atlanta’s most overmatched defenses.

Unless it was Jessie Bates doing everything he could to make a play on the ball, the pass was bound to be completed. For any quarterback, let alone a rookie known for being hesitant to push the ball downfield, to be at ease completing uncontested vertical passes is an alarming sign for a defensive coordinator.

Hughes and Alford were missed against Denver, but the coaching staff’s plan to overcome those losses was disastrous. The decision to start Kevin King in the slot was a problem before he suffered a concussion. To replace him with Richie Grant was nonsensical with Natrone Brooks on the active roster as a natural corner, one who had good moments Sunday. Grant’s awareness and coverage range were significant problems last year. Asking him to play in the slot, even in mostly zone looks, was asking for trouble. It was no surprise Nix capitalized on throwing in his direction, resulting in one touchdown and seven passes completed on seven targets, per Pro Football Focus.

What transpired against Denver is a culmination of how badly the defense has played for the past six weeks. Only Carolina and Arizona are worse on third down this season, as the Falcons allow 46% of third downs to be converted. According to Pro Football Focus, they are the sixth worst unit in allowing conversions to become a new series of downs. The best hope for generating pressure is running a twist inside the B-gap with Kaden Elliss to create chaos inside in hopes of collapsing the pocket. That doesn’t happen nearly enough because the pressure concepts are so condensed that defensive linemen are falling into each other and quarterbacks can slide in another direction to avoid being disrupted when going through their progressions.

There were plenty of questions about how a roster built to play in Ryan Nielsen’s heavy front, man-style defense would transition to what Morris and Lake build their defenses on. The secondary is playing significantly more Cover 3 with some Cover 6 compared to last season. They rarely play man coverage, which is much different from what Nielsen played last year. Instead of putting more bodies near the line of scrimmage at the second level, they use ineffective bear fronts with awkward personnel usage or stick with classic nickel looks. We now have eleven weeks of games to say very little of it is working.

There hasn’t been any progress with these changes. Offenses are getting downhill on the ground easily, passes are completed without being contested, and quarterbacks couldn’t be more comfortable in the pocket. That adds up to being one of the worst defenses in the league, albeit one where coaching can’t be held solely accountable for the mess that the defense is currently in.

Minimal Individual Improvement, Enormous Individual Decline

When assessing the defense, are there players making strides this season? Are the stars and valuable veterans still playing at a high level? Zach Harrison and James Smith-Williams have become solid contributors in their limited roles, though JSW is now on injured reserve. Despite taking ugly angles on both screens that went for touchdowns last Sunday, Bates is still playing at an All-Pro level. The defense could be as bad as Carolina’s if he weren’t on the roster. A.J. Terrell can be on the receiving end of explosive plays more than you’d like for someone being paid as a top-tier player, but he is still reliable for the most part. Hughes has surpassed expectations as a starter with his outstanding open-field tackling and sharp zone coverage skills.

The positives end there. Although Troy Andersen was exceptional against the Saints in Week 4, he hasn’t been able to get on the field since then. No other defensive player on the roster has improved or played at the standard they set for themselves. Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata are no longer high-impact down-to-down players. They haven’t been close to the tone-setters they were last season.

Matthew Judon can’t overpower or maneuver past any right tackle in an isolated matchup. After showing plenty of flashes last season, Arnold Ebiketie’s lack of explosiveness and development in his pass-rushing arsenal has made him ineffective coming off the edge. Your expected top four players on the defensive line to all play well below their respective standards makes it practically impossible to be productive up front.

The hits keep coming with Nate Landman’s lack of range and agility. Asking him to make plays in space has become a severe problem. Nielsen did an excellent job of putting him in positions to operate in the box instead of 15 yards downfield. Having him play 60 snaps in Lake’s system is proving too much for the hard-nosed linebacker.

As well as Kaden Elliss has played in recent weeks, his limitations as an off-ball linebacker in coverage are evident. What is most concerning is that neither player is making anywhere close to the amount of run stops they made last season. Whether it’s taking a poor angle, not recognizing the run design fast enough, or being blown off the ball, both linebackers often make tackles eight to ten yards past the line of scrimmage rather than near it.

The list goes on, from Clark Phillips looking more rigid in coverage on the outside to Alford’s poor positioning inside. As frustratingly lackluster as a scheme can be, it can’t be solely responsible for nearly an entire defensive group to play below expectations. Players have to be more fundamentally sound. There’s a difference between yards being allowed and explosive plays being allowed. Denver gained 199 yards after the catch last Sunday. That’s the 11th-highest amount a team has produced this season per TruMedia.

Coaching can only do so much when bad angles are taken and tackles are missed. The defense will allow their share of yards underneath because of the scheme, as frustrating as that is. It’s on the players to not to allow 15+ yard plays to occur as frequently as it did against Denver.

Rising to the Occasion

The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time. Getting Andersen, Hughes, and Alford healthy is pivotal for this defense to be competent again. All three players have flaws and limitations, but they possess the capability to make impact plays and not be completely overwhelmed. Facing a red-hot Justin Herbert operating with more freedom and command than he has ever done before will be a daunting challenge. Attempting to stop Justin Jefferson’s greatness with Kevin O Connell’s play-calling mastery could be equally as difficult.

Both matchups provide perfect litmus tests to see what the Falcons are truly made of, and whether they can come out of the bye playing better on this side of the ball. They can feel much better winning one of the next two games, which has to feature the defense starting better, providing more effective and creative looks, and have players taking on blocks more effectively, being more disciplined in their gap integrity, and making the first tackle more consistently.

As bleak as things appear at the moment, they control their destiny. They can rectify these past two appalling defeats with two upcoming matchups against top-five teams in their respective conferences. It will take significant coaching adjustments and personnel improvement to do it over the next three weeks.