The past suggests a Cousins trade will be tricky for the Falcons to pull off
The fate of former Atlanta Falcons starting quarterback Kirk Cousins is unknown. But Cousins’ next snap under center will likely come in a different uniform, regardless of the Falcons’ expressed “comfort” with him remaining as a backup, something that Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot reiterated at this week’s Scouting Combine.
If the Falcons cannot find a trade partner, they may be forced to cut Cousins with a post-June 1 designation to avoid guaranteeing his 2026 roster bonus in March. Given that a potential Cousins trade will be a shadow that hangs over the beginning of the Falcons offseason, I wanted to look back to see what the past decade of quarterback trades might tell us about his eventual fate.
Since 2015, there have been 57 quarterback trades that involved 60 different passers. The vast majority of those trades occurred at the outset of the offseason. By month:
- March (29)
- April (6)
- May (2)
- June (0)
- July (2)
- August (9)
- September (6)
- October (3)
A total of 34 trades occurred before the draft, or roughly 60 percent of the total. The Falcons will want to deal Cousins well ahead of April’s draft to get compensation this year that can help this team win sooner rather than later. If the team waits, Fontenot may not be around to use any draft picks acquired in 2026.
What sort of compensation can the Falcons expect?
A handful of trades involved teams trading incumbent starters like Cousins after using a first-round pick on a quarterback in the preceding draft, as the Falcons did when they selected Michael Penix last April.
In 2015, the Minnesota Vikings traded bridge starter Matt Cassel to the Buffalo Bills after selecting Teddy Bridgewater the previous year. The Bills gave up a pair of late-round picks.
In 2016, the Philadelphia Eagles traded Sam Bradford to the Vikings after Carson Wentz’s emergence that preseason. Bridgewater suffered a devastating injury that summer and the Vikings gave up a first-round pick and a conditional fourth-rounder in the hopes that Bradford could keep their playoff hopes afloat.
In 2018, the Kansas City Chiefs moved Alex Smith to Washington for a third-round pick and cornerback Kendall Fuller, less than a year after the Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes.
In 2019, the Baltimore Ravens traded Joe Flacco to the Denver Broncos for a fourth-round pick after the Ravens had nabbed Lamar Jackson the previous April.
Later that same offseason, on the second day of the 2019 NFL Draft, the Arizona Cardinals traded Josh Rosen to the Miami Dolphins, the day after they used the No. 1 overall pick on Kyler Murray.
The Flacco trade is the closest analog to the current Falcons situation involving Cousins. Flacco was coming off an injury-marred 2018 season and turned 34 a few months before being traded. The Broncos selected Drew Lock in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft, with Flacco functioning as a bridge. That bridge last eight games before a neck injury sidelined Flacco for the rest of the season, allowing Lock to step in.
The Falcons’ best hope may be to follow in those same footsteps, hoping another team wants Cousins to function as their bridge quarterback for 2025 while fully intending to draft a young passer come April.
The Falcons could potentially hope to net a fifth-round pick in exchange for Cousins, a little less than what the Ravens got for Flacco. That would probably be the best-case scenario in terms of compensation. But due to the looming deadline of that March 17 roster bonus, a team would be justified in offering less trade compensation in a take-or-leave-it situation.
What happens if the Falcons can’t trade Cousins before March 17?
If the Falcons cannot trade Cousins in March, should they hold onto him and hope a trade develops down the road? After all, the Falcons could save a lot more money against the salary cap if they were to trade Cousins after June 1. However, history suggests the likelihood of such a trade developing after the draft is very low.
Over the past decade, 16 QB trades happened after June. Only four involved starters being moved: the aforementioned 2016 Bradford trade to the Vikings, a 2017 trade that sent Jacoby Brissett to the Indianapolis Colts, the 2022 trade of Baker Mayfield to the Carolina Panthers, and the 2023 trade of Joshua Dobbs to the Cardinals.
Three involved teams looking to replace an injury: Bradford for Bridgewater, Brissett for Andrew Luck, and Dobbs for Kyler Murray. In both Luck and Murray’s cases, those injuries occurred during the previous season and lingered into the following season. The closest analog to such a situation currently is the Cleveland Browns dealing with the setback in Deshaun Watson’s recovery from an Achilles injury. However, the recent rumor mill is that the Browns are already preparing for life without Watson by using the No. 2 overall selection on a rookie quarterback.
Is it possible an injury will happen between now and the start of the season that will make another team more desperate to acquire Cousins? Yes, but it has only happened once in the case of Bridgewater. Given a decade’s worth of opportunities with 32 different starters, it’s essentially a one-in-320 chance.
The other factor weighing against a Cousins trade is his age. The vast majority of quarterback trades were backups still working on their rookie deals. Teams traded quarterbacks aged 22 through 25 the most at 26 times. That was followed by those aged 26 through 29, involving 19 trades. Quarterbacks aged 30 through 33 were traded 10 times, and those aged 34 or above were traded five times.
Cousins will turn 37 in August, and if he is traded, he will be the second-oldest quarterback to be traded since 2015. The only one older was Aaron Rodgers, who was 39 when the New York Jets acquired him in 2023.
Flacco was traded at age 34 to the Broncos and again at age 36 to the Jets. Case Keenum was 34 when he was traded to the Bills in 2022. And of course, Matt Ryan was 36 when the Falcons traded him to the Colts that same year. None of those trades lived up to expectations for the acquiring teams, which will make any teams looking to add Cousins skeptical that he’ll break that trend.
Teams have continuously shown throughout NFL history that they can be desperate for quarterbacks, but that usually only applies to the young ones. In a copycat league, teams will look at the Falcons’ willingness to invest so much in Cousins last offseason as a mistake to avoid repeating. Instead, they will hope to look at the Pittsburgh Steelers’ success that same offseason in signing Russell Wilson on the cheap as something to replicate.
Yet, they can only do that if the Falcons cut Cousins with a post-June 1 designation in March. That is the prevailing expectation for those in various league circles.
So, the past decade’s worth of evidence points to the possibility of a Cousins trade, yet circumstances indicate that it’s unlikely. You can never say never, but history isn’t kind to aging options like Cousins.