The Falcons can’t be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention yet, but a loss would put them on that doorstep.
It’s earlier than originally expected, but the Michael Penix Jr. era is upon us in Atlanta, 15 games into his rookie season and maybe not a moment too soon.
Following a disgusting offensive performance which led to a win that was much more difficult than it should have been against the hapless Raiders on Monday Night Football, the Falcons finally pulled the trigger on benching Kirk Cousins in favor of the rookie.
Now, the scenario is simple — Penix must lead the Birds to three wins in three games down the stretch if they want have a realistic chance of competing in post season play for the first time since 2017. The first opponent on that docket is the 2-12 New York Giants, who are in contention for the Number 1 overall pick.
Let’s take a look at the circumstances surrounding the Falcons if they beat the Giants in Week 16, as well as looking at the scenario if they lose.
If the Falcons win
They will achieve their eighth victory of the campaign, which would be the most they have had in a single season since going 10-6 in 2017. If you’re keeping count, this team has won exactly seven games five times in the past six seasons, and it would be a big mental hurdle to finally be able to change that “7” to an “8” in the win column for the first time in nearly a decade.
Tampa Bay is the big team to watch down the stretch. If they follow their impressive victory over the Chargers with a letdown and defeat against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, the Falcons will tie them atop the NFC South and take the division lead by virtue of the tiebreaker. This would mean that Atlanta’s magic number to clinch would be two, and that they would control their own destiny.
Looking at the Wildcard race, the Birds will need far more help. It’s not possible for them to move into the playoff picture without a Bucs loss this weekend, but they will set themselves up with a real shot at the final Wildcard spot if the Commanders lose to the Eagles and the Seahawks lose to the Vikings (both opponents are among the NFC elites, with just two losses this year).
Maybe most importantly from a long term perspective, Penix with a good performance would rejuvenate some of the fanbase’s hope within the prospects of this franchise after a third straight year of failure at the quarterback position (this one being the most expensive). Even if they don’t make the playoffs, three strong performances from the rookie QB would go a long way for the franchise from a macro sense.
If the Falcons lose
They will suffer the embarrassment of giving the New York Giants just their third victory of the season, and will likely see any playoff hopes completely dissolved. They won’t be mathematically eliminated, but for all intents and purposes, it would be near impossible to foresee a scenario where they play past Week 18.
Tampa Bay can move to the doorstep of a division title with a victory over the Cowboys, as their magic number to clinch would be one. Just one victory for them over their last two games or one Falcons defeat would see Tampa lift yet another division banner.
The Wildcard race would see the Falcons needing the Seattle Seahawks and the Washington Commanders to lose out just to have a chance, as well as for the Arizona Cardinals to not win out. It would take a monumental amount of help for Atlanta to have a chance.
Playoffstatus.com has the Falcons’ current playoff chances at 39%. In a worst case scenario where the Commanders and Bucs both also win, those chances would fall all the way down to 1%.