There’s a scenario where the Falcons clinch the division this weekend.
Don’t look now, but the Atlanta Falcons are back in first place and they once again have full control of their own destiny. This happened by way of an early Christmas gift from the Dallas Cowboys, who once again reshuffled the NFC South after a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday night.
Now, it’s the Falcons who take their turn on the road against an NFC East team under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football, when they square off against the Washington Commanders, who took their own big step toward a playoff spot following a victory over the Philadelphia Eagles last weekend.
There are two games remaining, and if the Falcons win both they will host their first playoff game since the 2016 NFC Championship against the Green Bay Packers. Standing in their way is the man who coached Atlanta in that very game, and who now stands on the opposite end as Washington’s head man — Dan Quinn.
Let’s take a look at the circumstances surrounding the Falcons if they beat the Commanders in Week 17, as well as looking at the scenario if they lose.
If the Falcons win
They will take a massive step toward that ever elusive division title, and may actually even already clinch their trip to the post season if Tampa Bay loses earlier in the day to the Carolina Panthers.
Atlanta’s magic number to clinch currently sits at two. Two more wins gets it done, as does one Tampa defeat plus a victory of their own, or two more Bucs losses.
The 3-seed will also still be in play despite the Rams and Seahawks already winning this week. If Seattle beats LA next week but the Rams win the NFC West by way of the strength of record tiebreaker (the fifth down the list), Atlanta will finish ahead of LA by way of conference record tiebreaker provided they win out.
The Falcons will also clinch their first record over .500 since they went 10-6 in 2017, which is the last time they tasted post season play. In the process they will do so by defeating Washington for the first time since 2018, ending a three game skid against the Redskins turned Football Team turned Commanders.
If the Falcons lose
There’s a possibility that they re-gift Tampa control of the division. Circumstances depend on the Bucs just as much as they do on the Falcons themselves. If Tampa beats Carolina they will have all but clinched the South, with one game remaining against the putrid New Orleans Saints, who just threw up all over themselves on Monday Night Football.
A Bucs loss to the Panthers will still have Atlanta in pole position, however, as the Birds will certainly get in with a Week 18 triumph in their own game against Carolina.
This will become the division and the 4-seed (or 3-seed) or bust as the Wildcard is now completely out of play either way with Washington’s victory over the Eagles, likely putting them on a collision course with an NFC North team if they make it.
Atlanta’s playoff odds currently sit at 51%, according to playoffstatus.com. Independent of other scorelines, if they win those odds will shoot up to 90% and if they lose they will fall to 27% and all the way down to 19% with a Bucs win. Very rarely does a game swing the pendulum this dramatically one way or the other.