The Atlanta Falcons have a rough stretch coming up, with three tough teams and an improving divisional rival (that’d be Carolina) alongside a couple of sad sack franchises on the schedule. To stay ahead in the NFC South with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers rounding into form, the Falcons have to win at least two and ideally three or four of their games against the Panthers, Commanders, Vikings, and Chargers.
They’ll start with Los Angeles. On paper, this is perhaps their toughest matchup of the year, given that the Chargers have a ton of talent, an exceptional coaching staff, and the kind of balance that can give the Falcons fits. There’s no question Atlanta will have to be much sharper to walk away with a home win, their first against an AFC opponent. The only question is how much the loss of top back J.K. Dobbins impacts the Chargers, as we just learned he will miss Sunday’s game.
Let’s talk about the matchup ahead.
Rankings
Los Angeles hasn’t been great offensively, but they’ve been a successful rushing attack with Dobbins and Justin Herbert can be lethal when his receiving options give him any sort of help. He has the fifth-highest average air yards per attempt in the NFL and he can challenge you deep, but Herbert is also big and fast enough to take off and wreak havoc with his legs.
Make no mistake, Herbert’s excellence and his ability to avoid turnovers—he has just one interception this season—are key to a Los Angeles victory. Without Dobbins, a major safety valve is gone from the passing game and easily the most effective runner on the Chargers is out, putting additional strain on Herbert. The fact that the Chargers have one of the best defenses in the NFL will go a long way toward helping Herbert on Sunday.
The Falcons have a quality offense that has teeth-gritting stretches of complete ineptitude, primarily on third downs and in the red zone, where penalties tend to be a limiter. They can move well between the 20s when Kirk Cousins has time and can run very effectively, something they’ll have to do to beat the Chargers. A pass defense that has been sliding for weeks will have to right the ship, while the run defense at least gets a break not having to face Dobbins.
The fact that the Chargers don’t really turn the ball over is a big deal; if the Falcons are sloppy they’re likely to lose.
How the Chargers have changed
Teams that are gifted a top ten NFL quarterback too often squander it. The Colts did after some early success with Andrew Luck, the Falcons did it with Matt Ryan for long stretches, and the Bengals are entering their buried Joe Burrow era. The quarterback alone isn’t enough.
The Chargers found that out over and over again. The Phillip Rivers team fell short again and again, either in the playoffs or just shy of them, and the early years of Justin Herbert’s tenure in Los Angeles shaped up similarly with a mix of losing records and playoff disappointments. The hiring of Jim Harbaugh is supposed to change that, and so far, so good.
Herbert is every bit as good as he’s been, but he’s in an offense that’s trying to maximize his strength, with a supporting cast that has been improved by the addition of talented back J.K. Dobbins and rookie receiver Ladd McConkey. Joe Alt has been a godsend at tackle, and the defense under Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Jessie Minter looks far, far better than it under nominally defensive-minded head coach Brandon Staley. They shored up their line further by signing Bradley Bozeman at center, added Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst to give themselves a functional tight ends room, and sank draft picks and money into the defense and came away with huge upgrades like Poona Ford and Cam Hart. This is a team that made very few missteps this past offseason.
Oh, and they traded for Taylor Heinicke.
The biggest change is still Harbaugh. Intense to the point of oddness, Harbaugh simply wins wherever he goes, and he’s brought a much cleaner operation to Los Angeles along with the personnel upgrades. This Chargers team looks like a potential force in the AFC going forward, and a team that might just be able to take advantage of Herbert’s prime.
What to know
I have this circled as the single most difficult game left on the schedule, with the caveat that the injury to J.K. Dobbins would be a significant blow to this team. Yes, the Vikings have a punishing pass rush and are capable of killing you offensively on their best day, but they’re prone to getting passed all over and heavily reliant on Sam Darnold being Good Sam Darnold and not Turnover Prone Sam Darnold. The promising Commanders may right the ship, but right now they’re losers of three straight and looking uncannily like the 2015 Falcons with their late season swoon.
The Chargers, despite a couple of wild ones these past two weeks, are just a damn good football team with real talent and balance on both sides of the ball. They can bring heat with their pass rush, their run defense is superb, and they have the secondary to at least keep up with a quality passing attack. Herbert can beat you with his legs or throw it over your head, McConkey is a crafty route runner who is difficult to contain, and Dobbins has never looked as good as he does now.
A bad day at the office is certainly possible, given recent results. Still, the Chargers are a tough, well-coached team, and a real test of how much progress the Falcons made during their bye week. There’s no outsized weakness to attack unless Dobbins misses the game, in which case the Chargers ground game suddenly becomes a problem for them. They’ll defend the Falcons well outside of the occasional missed tackle, avoid turnovers that give Atlanta gimme drives, and can punish lapses with a big play quarterback and (if he plays) a deadly runner in Dobbins.
For all their formidable capabilities, the Chargers are a streaky team in the frame of each individual game, which is where many of their 2024 woes have come from. There is, for example, a curious quirk of the Chargers that dovetails with a curious quirk of Atlanta’s. The Chargers are among the worst second half scoring teams in football, as they come out of the gates swinging and then cool off significantly. The Falcons, meanwhile, are 31st in average points allowed in the NFL in first halves but are 10th in the league in second halves, meaning if they can keep this game within reach early, they have a fighting chance to work some halftime magic against a team that tends to swoon.
The Chargers average 8.2 points per game in the second half, the third lowest in the NFL.
— Kris Rhim (@krisrhim1) November 26, 2024
The Chargers, in case you wondered, are defensively first in the NFL in average points allowed in the first half, which means the Falcons will have their work cut out for them. They are a more manageable 13th in the second half, meaning this game has the real potential to see-saw.
Los Angeles also runs an offense that sometimes labors, a product of only having one reliable receiver in McConkey. The rookie is the only Chargers receiver in the top 50 in terms of success rate as a receiver, and the only Chargers receiver in the top 100 in catch rate. Because Dobbins is an outlet option for Justin Herbert that he otherwise lacks, his absence would also be felt in the passing game; the reason the Chargers are among the bottom teams in the league in terms of first downs gained is in large part because their receiving options are so boom or bust. This is also a team that is just league average in third down conversions, meaning if the Falcons can do their job and set up third and long situations, they actually have a shot at getting off the field.
With all that said, this matchup puts pressure on the Falcons to do something they’ve only done in fits and starts: Play clean, well-rounded, disciplined football. Getting Drew Dalman back should help them against this run defense, and the return of Troy Andersen will make a huge difference in freeing up Kaden Elliss to blitz and providing significant upgrades on Nate Landman in terms of coverage ability and pursuit. Los Angeles’s depressing wide receiver depth chart outside of McConkey, the absence of Dobbins, and the opportunity to rest and reset should give the Falcons’ defense a fighting chance; if they look flat and dead early in this one, it’s going to be a bad omen for the rest of the way.