All about our odious opponent.
It’s a week I look forward to and dread every year, the first game against the hated New Orleans Saints. It’s a new year filled with promise in so many ways, but one of the most appealing potential outcomes remains the Atlanta Falcons going 2-0 against their rivals and embarrassing them in the process.
The Dennis Allen-led squad ensured Arthur Smith’s firing in one of the more lopsided losses the Falcons have suffered in the rivalry at the end of 2023, and now a very different Falcons team with a new coaching staff gets a crack at a Saints team that is strikingly similar to last year’s edition. The chance to extend New Orleans’ skid to two games, pull even in the NFC South, and (for those players who were in Atlanta last year) avenge a humiliating loss should add plenty of fuel to an already roaring fire.
Here’s what you need to know about the matchup ahead.
Team rankings
Falcons – Saints breakdown
On paper, this is a wildly lopsided matchup. The blazing hot start to the year for the offense has made this Saints team look more formidable on that side of the ball than they truly are, but they are better than anticipated on offense. Defensively, they might be a little worse than the numbers suggest, but that’s a team strength and they faced two capable offenses in Dallas and Philadelphia already.
Atlanta needs to clean up their third down struggles and turnovers on offense to avoid giving New Orleans free drives, and defensively they have to clamp down on the run to take the next step, as well as gin up a pass rush. This matchup offers some opportunities in those regards, at least.
How the Saints have changed
The most significant change of all was definitely the addition of Klint Kubiak as the offensive coordinator, given his early work to try to make this offense more efficient. While the wheels fell off in Week 3, there’s little doubt he’ll draw at least modest year-over-year improvement out of this offense when all is said and done, which is very annoying.
New addition Lucas Patrick manned left guard effectively at times in the first two weeks, but he’ll now have to take over at center, where he was less effective in Week 3. Fellow free agent signing Olisaemeka Udoh is listed as the starting left guard, but was disastrously terrible in pass protection last week, and may give way to Patrick at left guard if the Saints swap right guard Cesar Ruiz to center. Regardless of the shuffling, this line is a trouble spot for New Orleans, even if it was a pleasant surprise for them the first two weeks. Those line additions are the headliners on offense for New Orleans.
The defensive additions through free agency were more significant. Will Harris is a solid enough starting safety who probably figures to be a league average option throughout the season, while Chase Young offers pass rushing help at the expense of his notoriously indifferent run defense. Willie Gay Jr. offers some quality depth at linebacker, though he’s been quiet in limited snaps.
Their draft brought in a day one starter at tackle they badly needed in Taliese Fuaga, who despite his struggles last week has been a huge addition. Second round pick Kool-Aid McKinstry is a talent who is struggling with missed tackles early but should be an impact starter over the long haul, and the team is hoping they found at least their backup quarterback of the future in Spencer Rattler. Their draft class is light on immediate contributors outside of Fuaga and McKinstry.
Overall, this is not a drastically transformed team, which goes back to their constantly precarious cap situation, inability and unwillingness to reset the roster, and limited success in the draft in recent years. The fact that they still appear to be a decent team is, of course, obnoxious.
What lies ahead
An uncertain opponent. Are the Falcons getting the dialed-in, formidable Saints offense of the first two weeks, or the disjointed and listless version that the Eagles shut down in Week 3? We know the Saints defense is good, which represents a significant challenge for Atlanta, but if the book is out on this offense and Week 3 represented a permanent return to earth, then the Falcons will have a much easier road to victory.
We’ll start with the known quantity. The Saints will let you move down the field, particularly through the air, but their stinginess in the red zone is a problem. In Week 1 they surrendered a pitiful 135 passing yards to Bryce Young after sacks are accounted for, but they allowed close to 300 in back-to-back weeks working against Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts. Kirk Cousins can attack safety Will Harris and cornerback Alontae Taylor, in particular, as both have had their coverage struggles early in the year. The rest of the secondary and indeed the linebacker group boasts strong coverage ability, necessitating Zac Robinson working to get preferred matchups. Perhaps the best bet will be leaning on a short game, screens, and plays that rely on yards after the catch, because the greatest Saints weakness may be their tackling. For reference, Pro Football Focus has the otherwise great Tyrann Mathieu missing nearly a quarter of his tackle attempts thus far in 2024.
The run defense is more stout, the product of a formidable New Orleans front, and it’s going to be another uphill battle for Zac Robinson and company in that regard. The good news is that New Orleans is more vulnerable on the edges against a team that loves to get Bijan Robinson outside, with Chase Young being a characteristically so-so run defender the Falcons should attempt to go at. That will involve Atlanta running behind Jake Matthews and Matthew Bergeron, their two weakest links in terms of run blocking, but it’s worthwhile with Storm Norton likely holding down the fort on the right side and Ryan Neuzil manning center, which will hurt the team’s strengths on the right side and interior. It’s going to be a bit of a slog, in all likelihood, though Tyler Allgeier’s ability to break tackles and BIjan’s ability to evade them figures to help here.
We know the defense will provide another stiff challenge, in other words, but what about the offense? This is where the uncertainty comes into play. Through the first two weeks, new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak had dialed up a ton of intermediate routes for Derek Carr off play action, allowing him to settle in at 22nd in the league in intended air yards per completion while sitting at fifth in the league in completed air yards per reception. Paired with the sixth best yards after the catch average in the league, a product of sowing confusion via motion, play action, and getting the hands of speedy receivers, Kubiak had effectively dialed up an easy mode while keeping pressure off the notoriously skittish pocket passer. While Carr’s numbers weren’t phenomenal, he was getting the job done to the tune of five touchdowns and just one interception in the first two weeks.
But tigers don’t change their stripes. Carr absorbed just one sack against the Eagles, but he was hurried and hit four times apiece and had two balls batted down, and the pressure forced him into the rushed and unwise throws that have been a hallmark of his career under pressure. Against Philadelphia, his completion percentage fell by 12% for the second straight week, he threw just one touchdown versus an interception, and his adjusted yards per completion fell by 10 whole yards. He’s a good quarterback on balance who has superior weapons in Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, but taking away his top two options and ratcheting up the pressure quickly makes Carr pedestrian. The Falcons have to get more pressure, especially with New Orleans missing center Erik McCoy, in order to throw this passing game off track.
If they do, it’ll be a matter of stopping Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill on the ground. That’s a tall order for a scuffling run defense that has historically struggled with both, but Kamara looked mortal on the ground again last week and is a 29-year-old back with significant mileage, while Hill is only a pest if you somehow forget that he’s going to run nearly every time he’s lined up in the backfield. It’s a doable challenge, but a challenge.
That all assume that New Orleans can hold up along the offensive line. Cesar Ruiz is coming off an injury, Erik McCoy is out, the team’s starting tackles struggled last week, and the options on the interior and at center in particular look pretty grim. If the Falcons interior is ever going to feast, it’s going to be this week.
When you come down to it, this is a winnable game, albeit one that is likely to be annoying and difficult to win. We’d expect nothing less from these Saints, and the hope is that the frustration we endure Sunday comes with the sweet reward of a much-needed divisional win.