The Falcons rarely trade up and never trade down, but circumstances suggest we should take the latter possibility seriously.
The Atlanta Falcons are currently slated to pick 15th in the 2025 NFL Draft. They should be sitting at a position where some intriguing defensive talents and possibly a top tackle are available for them there, and I don’t think anyone would be particularly vexed if they came away with a potential high-end starter by sitting still.
This is also a draft class where circumstances may conspire to move the Falcons off their pick. I’m not suggesting they’ll trade up in the first round—that’s not something they’ve done under Terry Fontenot thus far, though they were more willing to do so under previous general manager “Trader” Thomas Dimitroff—but I am suggesting they might move down.
Why? Let’s examine the case for all three possible scenarios, starting with that move down, with the note that I think the likeliest outcome is still staying put.
Trade down
The Falcons only have five draft selections in 2025. They have their first and second round picks, a fourth rounder, and two seventh rounders. That’s it.
If this was a team fresh off a playoff berth with all its roster-based ducks in a row, you’d be okay with that meager draft capital. The Falcons, though, are fresh off an 8-9 season, have had to scrounge for cap space, and still have significant roster holes. They could use more picks just to have more shots at adding quality players, and as it stands now, you can only reasonably expect to get two day one starters out of this class.
A trade down requires an interested partner, but it would make as much sense at 15 as it would in the second round, in all likelihood. Unless the Falcons are extremely invested in a particular player—hopefully a defender—bumping down a few picks is unlikely to put them out of range of a useful talent. Collecting additional draft capital this year and perhaps next week to do so would put the team in a position to add at least one more starter or high-end reserve, depending on the capital they’d pick up, which feels necessary right now and well into the future for a squad that needs an infusion of young talent.
Trading down makes as much sense as it ever has for this team, in other words. If they don’t do it this year, they’re never going to.
Stay put
The argument for staying at 15 is simple enough: A player you covet is there and you know you won’t get him if you move down. That could be an explosive pass rusher like Mike Green, a slightly falling cornerback like Will Johnson, or a superior safety talent like Malaki Starks, or it could be a player the Falcons feel confident can be a long-term starter at right tackle.
Whoever it is, the Falcons would need to be A) enamored with that player and B) not have a knockout offer that would force them to move off the spot. The fact that there may not be a player other teams covet enough to move up at 15 and the fact that there is likely to be a player the Falcons like a lot there means sticking is probably the outcome you should bet on.
Trade up
I’m including this because it’s technically possible, but would be beyond foolish for these Falcons. With only five selections, Atlanta would have to likely surrender their second round pick this year and potentially their fourth for any significant sort of jump, or give up significant capital next year.
If it’s for Abdul Carter, perhaps you can talk yourself into that, but it would leave the Falcons with very little room to add to their roster via the draft in a meaningful way and be a declaration that they believe they can be a legitimate playoff contender with…well, a defense that’s quite similar to what they had a year ago, plus Leonard Floyd, Divine Deablo, Jordan Fuller, and a talent like Carter. I like those additions, I think Jeff Ulbrich will be an upgrade, and I still wouldn’t want to make that bet.
Let’s hear your take! Are the Falcons picking at 15, trading down, or trading up?